Monterey Bay 33%Draw 24%New Mexico United 43%Expected goals 1.19 – 1.59
65%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.55 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.55Odds
2
Value bet: New Mexico United to win @ 2.80 – our chance 43% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultNew Mexico United to win ✓43% · @2.80
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.44
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.71
Monterey Bay vs New Mexico United: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
New Mexico United travel to face Monterey Bay on Sunday 9 August in the USL Championship, with Cardinale Stadium the venue – the ball rolls at 03:00 WAT. In the table, Monterey Bay are 12th, in the drop zone, on 24 points after 30 matches; New Mexico United are 1st (leading the league) with 52. There are 28 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Monterey Bay, last 5: LLLLL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to El Paso Locomotive, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
New Mexico United, last 5: WWWWD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Colorado Springs, at home. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.2 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours New Mexico United, collecting 2.7 points per game to 0.2 for Monterey Bay.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Monterey Bay 1.2 xG, New Mexico United 1.6 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 56%, GG 61%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Monterey Bay 33%, draw 24%, New Mexico United 43%.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.44.
Price worth noting: New Mexico United to win @2.80 – the bookmaker implies 36%, our ratings say 43%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (65%, odds 1.55). Most likely score in line with that pick: Monterey Bay 1–1 New Mexico United. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Monterey Bay33%fair 3.03 · @2.20
Draw24%fair 4.15 · @3.50
New Mexico United43%fair 2.33 · @2.80
2.77Expected goals
1.19Monterey Bay xG
1.59New Mexico United xG
61%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–110%
1–29%
0–28%
1–07%
2–17%
From our goals model: Monterey Bay 1.2 – 1.6 New Mexico United expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Monterey Bay
New Mexico United
Attack vs USL Championship average
-12%
+23%
Goals conceded vs average
+13%
-22%
Our expected goals here
1.03
1.70
Our own ratings from every USL Championship result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
New Mexico United to win✓
43%
2.33
2.80 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
61%
1.64
1.44
Draw no bet
New Mexico United (draw no bet)✓
57%
1.77
–
Asian handicap
Monterey Bay +1 (Asian handicap)✗
69%
1.45
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.18
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.77
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
65%
1.54
1.55
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
85%
1.17
–
First team to score
New Mexico United to score first
54%
1.86
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.42
–
Half-time / full-time
HT New Mexico United / FT New Mexico United✗
28%
3.57
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.71
–
Recent results
Monterey Bay – last 6
LLLLLD
6 Aug
@ El Paso Locomotive
0–1
L
2 Aug
@ Lexington
2–3
L
26 Jul
vs Orange County SC
1–2
L
19 Jul
@ Phoenix Rising
2–3
L
12 Jul
vs Las Vegas Lights
2–3
L
5 Jul
@ San Antonio
0–0
D
1.2Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
New Mexico United – last 6
WWWWDW
2 Aug
vs Colorado Springs
1–0
W
16 Jul
@ Lexington
4–1
W
12 Jul
@ El Paso Locomotive
2–0
W
5 Jul
vs Oakland Roots
2–1
W
2 Jul
vs Atlante FC
3–3
D
21 Jun
@ Sacramento Republic
1–0
W
2.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Monterey Bay and New Mexico United.
What is the prediction for Monterey Bay vs New Mexico United?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.
Who will win Monterey Bay vs New Mexico United?
On our numbers Monterey Bay have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 24% and New Mexico United 43%.
How many goals will there be in Monterey Bay vs New Mexico United?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Monterey Bay vs New Mexico United?
Our predicted score is Monterey Bay 1–1 New Mexico United, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Monterey Bay vs New Mexico United?
Monterey Bay vs New Mexico United (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 9 August 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time) at Cardinale Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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