New Mexico United v Sacramento Republic Prediction & Expected Goals (27 Sep) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultSacramento Republic to win ✓61% · @1.95

Double chanceEither team to win ✓82% · @1.30

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.70

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗78% · fair 1.28

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.83

New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

New Mexico United welcome Sacramento Republic to Rio Grande Credit Union Field at Isotopes Park for a USL Championship fixture on Sunday 27 September (02:00 WAT). In the table, New Mexico United are 1st, leading the league, on 52 points after 30 matches; Sacramento Republic are 2nd (among the top four) with 51. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.

Current form

New Mexico United, last 5: DDDWL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Colorado Springs, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.

Sacramento Republic, last 5: DWDDD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with San Antonio, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Head to head

When they last met (21 Jun 2026) it ended Sacramento Republic 0–1 New Mexico United.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give New Mexico United 0.8 xG, Sacramento Republic 1.6 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 55%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – New Mexico United 21%, draw 18%, Sacramento Republic 61%.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.70.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Sacramento Republic to win (61%, odds 1.95 – longer than our fair 1.65, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: New Mexico United 0–1 Sacramento Republic. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

New Mexico United21%fair 4.76 · @3.30

Draw18%fair 5.48 · @3.30

Sacramento Republic61%fair 1.65 · @1.95

2.38Expected goals

0.77New Mexico United xG

1.61Sacramento Republic xG

55%Both score

43%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

0–115%

0–212%

1–111%

0–09%

1–29%

1–07%

From our goals model: New Mexico United 0.8 – 1.6 Sacramento Republic expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Sacramento Republic to win ✓	61%	1.65	1.95 ▲
Double chance	Either team to win ✓	82%	1.22	1.30 ▲
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	55%	1.82	1.70
Draw no bet	Sacramento Republic (draw no bet) ✓	74%	1.35	–
Asian handicap	New Mexico United +1.5 (Asian handicap) ✓	69%	1.45	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	69%	1.46	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✗	57%	1.74	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✗	78%	1.28	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✗	91%	1.10	–
First team to score	Sacramento Republic to score first ✓	61%	1.63	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✗	44%	2.27	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Sacramento Republic / FT Sacramento Republic ✓	35%	2.84	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–2 ✗	9%	10.83	–

New Mexico United – last 6

DDDWLW

20 Sep	@ Colorado Springs	0–0	D
17 Sep	@ Birmingham Legion	4–4	D
12 Sep	vs Indy Eleven	2–2	D
6 Sep	@ Las Vegas Lights	2–1	W
30 Aug	vs San Antonio	1–2	L
27 Aug	vs Lexington	2–1	W

1.8Scored / game

1.7Conceded / game

83%Both scored

83%Over 2.5

Sacramento Republic – last 6

DWDDDW

21 Sep	vs San Antonio	0–0	D
13 Sep	vs Detroit City	1–0	W
6 Sep	@ Orange County SC	1–1	D
30 Aug	@ Monterey Bay	1–1	D
23 Aug	vs Phoenix Rising	2–2	D
16 Aug	vs Lexington	1–0	W

1.0Scored / game

0.7Conceded / game

50%Both scored

17%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	New Mexico United	30	15	7	8	+11	52
2	Sacramento Republic	30	13	12	5	+14	51
3	El Paso Locomotive	30	15	5	10	+10	50
4	Lexington	30	14	6	10	+18	48
5	Colorado Springs	30	13	8	9	+6	47
6	San Antonio	30	11	12	7	+2	45
7	FC Tulsa	30	11	10	9	+3	43
8	Phoenix Rising	30	10	10	10	-1	40
9	Orange County SC	30	10	9	11	-10	39
10	Oakland Roots	30	9	11	10	-1	38
11	Las Vegas Lights	30	10	6	14	-7	36
12	Monterey Bay	30	6	6	18	-20	24

Team

Pts

+11

+14

+10

+18

-1

-10

-1

-7

-20

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic?

Our pick is Sacramento Republic to win with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.95.

Who will win New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic?

On our numbers New Mexico United have a 21% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Sacramento Republic 61%.

How many goals will there be in New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic?

We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic?

Our predicted score is New Mexico United 0–1 Sacramento Republic, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.

When is New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic?

New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Rio Grande Credit Union Field at Isotopes Park.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

New Mexico United v Sacramento Republic: numbers & prediction