Sacramento Republic v Las Vegas Lights Prediction & Expected Goals (1 Oct) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultSacramento Republic to win ✓60% · @1.50

Double chanceSacramento Republic or draw ✓82% · @1.15

Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗54% · @1.83

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗77% · fair 1.30

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.87

Sacramento Republic vs Las Vegas Lights: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

03:00 WAT, Thursday 1 October: Sacramento Republic v Las Vegas Lights in the USL Championship, played at Papa Murphy's Park. In the table, Sacramento Republic are 2nd, among the top four, on 51 points after 30 matches; Las Vegas Lights are 11th (in the drop zone) with 36. There are 15 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.

Current form

Sacramento Republic, last 5: WDWDD Their latest outing: 3–2 win over New Mexico United, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.

Las Vegas Lights, last 5: DWLLL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Hartford Athletic, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.

Momentum favours Sacramento Republic, collecting 1.7 points per game to 1.2 for Las Vegas Lights.

Head to head

When they last met (12 Apr 2026) it ended Las Vegas Lights 1–1 Sacramento Republic.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Sacramento Republic 1.7 xG, Las Vegas Lights 0.8 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 46%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Sacramento Republic 60%, draw 21%, Las Vegas Lights 18%.
Lower-risk option: Sacramento Republic or draw (82%) at 1.15.
GG/NG: NG (54%) at 1.83.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Sacramento Republic to win (60%, odds 1.50). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sacramento Republic 1–0 Las Vegas Lights. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Sacramento Republic60%fair 1.66 · @1.50

Draw21%fair 4.70 · @3.90

Las Vegas Lights18%fair 5.42 · @5.00

2.44Expected goals

1.67Sacramento Republic xG

0.77Las Vegas Lights xG

46%Both score

44%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–015%

2–012%

1–111%

2–19%

0–09%

3–07%

From our goals model: Sacramento Republic 1.7 – 0.8 Las Vegas Lights expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Sacramento Republic to win ✓	60%	1.66	1.50
Double chance	Sacramento Republic or draw ✓	82%	1.23	1.15
Both teams to score	Not both teams to score ✗	54%	1.86	1.83
Draw no bet	Sacramento Republic (draw no bet) ✓	77%	1.31	–
Asian handicap	Las Vegas Lights +1.5 (Asian handicap) ✓	67%	1.49	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	70%	1.43	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✗	56%	1.79	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✗	77%	1.30	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✗	90%	1.11	–
First team to score	Sacramento Republic to score first	62%	1.60	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✓	43%	2.31	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Sacramento Republic / FT Sacramento Republic ✗	36%	2.76	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–0 ✗	15%	6.87	–

Sacramento Republic – last 6

WDWDDD

27 Sep	@ New Mexico United	3–2	W
21 Sep	vs San Antonio	0–0	D
13 Sep	vs Detroit City	1–0	W
6 Sep	@ Orange County SC	1–1	D
30 Aug	@ Monterey Bay	1–1	D
23 Aug	vs Phoenix Rising	2–2	D

1.3Scored / game

1.0Conceded / game

67%Both scored

33%Over 2.5

Las Vegas Lights – last 6

DWLLLW

20 Sep	vs Hartford Athletic	1–1	D
13 Sep	@ Orange County SC	2–0	W
6 Sep	vs New Mexico United	1–2	L
30 Aug	vs Charleston Battery	0–2	L
23 Aug	@ Lexington	0–2	L
16 Aug	vs Brooklyn	2–1	W

1.0Scored / game

1.3Conceded / game

50%Both scored

33%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	New Mexico United	30	15	7	8	+11	52
2	Sacramento Republic	30	13	12	5	+14	51
3	El Paso Locomotive	30	15	5	10	+10	50
4	Lexington	30	14	6	10	+18	48
5	Colorado Springs	30	13	8	9	+6	47
6	San Antonio	30	11	12	7	+2	45
7	FC Tulsa	30	11	10	9	+3	43
8	Phoenix Rising	30	10	10	10	-1	40
9	Orange County SC	30	10	9	11	-10	39
10	Oakland Roots	30	9	11	10	-1	38
11	Las Vegas Lights	30	10	6	14	-7	36
12	Monterey Bay	30	6	6	18	-20	24

Team

Pts

+11

+14

+10

+18

-1

-10

-1

-7

-20

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Sacramento Republic vs Las Vegas Lights?

Our pick is Sacramento Republic to win with a 60% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.

Who will win Sacramento Republic vs Las Vegas Lights?

On our numbers Sacramento Republic have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Las Vegas Lights 18%.

How many goals will there be in Sacramento Republic vs Las Vegas Lights?

We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Sacramento Republic vs Las Vegas Lights?

Our predicted score is Sacramento Republic 1–0 Las Vegas Lights, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.

When is Sacramento Republic vs Las Vegas Lights?

Sacramento Republic vs Las Vegas Lights (USL Championship) kicks off on Thursday 1 October 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time) at Papa Murphy's Park.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Sacramento Republic v Las Vegas Lights: numbers & prediction