Value bet: Tlaxcala to win @ 2.38 – our chance 54% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +30%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultTlaxcala to win ✓54% · @2.38
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.65
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗77% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.09
Tlaxcala vs Tepatitlán: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 1 March the Liga De Expansión MX brings Tlaxcala against Tepatitlán at Estadio Tlahuicole. Kick-off: 23:00 WAT. In the table, Tlaxcala are 8th, upper half, on 22 points after 15 matches; Tepatitlán are 16th (in the drop zone) with 7. There are 15 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Tlaxcala 2.1 xG, Tepatitlán 1.0 xG – a total near 3.1. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 55% and GG at 60%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Tlaxcala 54%, draw 21%, Tepatitlán 25%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.65.
Price worth noting: Tlaxcala to win @2.38 – the bookmaker implies 42%, our ratings say 54%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (77%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Tlaxcala 2–1 Tepatitlán. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Tlaxcala54%fair 1.84 · @2.38
Draw21%fair 4.86 · @3.25
Tepatitlán25%fair 4.01 · @2.90
3.15Expected goals
2.14Tlaxcala xG
1.00Tepatitlán xG
60%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–110%
2–010%
1–19%
1–09%
3–17%
3–07%
From our goals model: Tlaxcala 2.1 – 1.0 Tepatitlán expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Tlaxcala
Tepatitlán
Attack vs Liga De Expansión MX average
+16%
-30%
Goals conceded vs average
-0%
+47%
Our expected goals here
3.15
0.85
Our own ratings from every Liga De Expansión MX result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Tlaxcala to win✓
54%
1.84
2.38 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.26
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.65
1.65
Draw no bet
Tlaxcala (draw no bet)✓
69%
1.46
–
Asian handicap
Tlaxcala -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.58
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
77%
1.29
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.81
1.90
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
1.33
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
1.11
First team to score
Tlaxcala to score first✓
65%
1.53
–
Half-time result
Tlaxcala ahead at half-time✗
47%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Tlaxcala / FT Tlaxcala✗
41%
2.44
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.09
–
Recent results
Tlaxcala – last 1
D
14 Feb
@ Alebrijes de Oaxaca
0–0
D
0.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Tepatitlán – last 2
WD
21 Feb
vs Irapuato
2–1
W
15 Feb
@ Leones Negros UDG
0–0
D
1.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Tlaxcala and Tepatitlán.
What is the prediction for Tlaxcala vs Tepatitlán?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Tlaxcala vs Tepatitlán?
On our numbers Tlaxcala have a 54% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Tepatitlán 25%.
How many goals will there be in Tlaxcala vs Tepatitlán?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tlaxcala vs Tepatitlán?
Our predicted score is Tlaxcala 2–1 Tepatitlán, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Tlaxcala vs Tepatitlán?
Tlaxcala vs Tepatitlán (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Tlahuicole.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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