Monarcas 52%Draw 24%CA La Paz 25%Expected goals 1.74 – 1.28
62%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.61 · bookmaker 1.57 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.57Odds
Picks by market
ResultMonarcas to win ✓52% · @1.75
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗64% · @1.50
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗81% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.57
Monarcas vs CA La Paz: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
CA La Paz travel to face Monarcas on Sunday 1 March in the Liga De Expansión MX, with Estadio Morelos the venue – the ball rolls at 02:00 WAT. In the table, Monarcas are 3rd, among the top four, on 26 points after 15 matches; CA La Paz are 1st (leading the league) with 30.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Monarcas 1.7 xG, CA La Paz 1.3 xG – a total near 3.0. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 59% and GG at 64%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Monarcas 52%, draw 24%, CA La Paz 25%.
GG/NG: GG (64%) at 1.50.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (62%, odds 1.57). Most likely score in line with that pick: Monarcas 1–1 CA La Paz. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Monarcas52%fair 1.94 · @1.75
Draw24%fair 4.22 · @4.00
CA La Paz25%fair 4.04 · @4.00
3.02Expected goals
1.74Monarcas xG
1.28CA La Paz xG
64%Both score
59%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
2–19%
1–09%
2–07%
1–27%
0–16%
From our goals model: Monarcas 1.7 – 1.3 CA La Paz expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Monarcas
CA La Paz
Attack vs Liga De Expansión MX average
-0%
+32%
Goals conceded vs average
-15%
-14%
Our expected goals here
1.59
1.36
Our own ratings from every Liga De Expansión MX result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Monarcas to win✓
52%
1.94
1.75
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
64%
1.57
1.50
Draw no bet
Monarcas (draw no bet)✓
68%
1.48
–
Asian handicap
CA La Paz +1 (Asian handicap)
66%
1.50
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
81%
1.24
1.17
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
59%
1.68
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
62%
1.61
1.57
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
1.22
First team to score
Monarcas to score first✓
55%
1.82
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
39%
2.55
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Monarcas / FT Monarcas✗
29%
3.40
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.57
–
Recent results
Monarcas – last 2
WW
21 Feb
@ Dorados
1–0
W
15 Feb
vs Venados FC
2–1
W
1.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
CA La Paz
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Monarcas and CA La Paz.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Monarcas vs CA La Paz?
On our numbers Monarcas have a 52% chance of winning, the draw 24% and CA La Paz 25%.
How many goals will there be in Monarcas vs CA La Paz?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Monarcas vs CA La Paz?
Our predicted score is Monarcas 1–1 CA La Paz, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Monarcas vs CA La Paz?
Monarcas vs CA La Paz (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Morelos.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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