Value bet: Leones Negros UDG to win @ 4.10 – our chance 34% vs 24% implied by the price (edge +37%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAtlante FC to win ✗43% · @1.84
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.73
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.88
Leones Negros UDG vs Atlante FC: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Leones Negros UDG welcome Atlante FC to Estadio Jalisco for a Liga De Expansión MX fixture on Sunday 1 March (19:00 WAT).
Current form
Atlante FC, last 3: WWD Their latest outing: 5–0 win over Irapuato, away. 2.3 goals per outing makes them dangerous. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Leones Negros UDG 1.5 xG, Atlante FC 1.3 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 52%, GG 61%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Leones Negros UDG 34%, draw 23%, Atlante FC 43%.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.73.
Price worth noting: Leones Negros UDG to win @4.10 – the bookmaker implies 24%, our ratings say 34%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (75%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Leones Negros UDG 1–1 Atlante FC. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Leones Negros UDG34%fair 2.98 · @4.10
Draw23%fair 4.31 · @3.55
Atlante FC43%fair 2.31 · @1.84
2.84Expected goals
1.52Leones Negros UDG xG
1.33Atlante FC xG
61%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
2–19%
1–09%
1–28%
0–18%
2–07%
From our goals model: Leones Negros UDG 1.5 – 1.3 Atlante FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Leones Negros UDG
Atlante FC
Attack vs Liga De Expansión MX average
+21%
+2%
Goals conceded vs average
-14%
-14%
Our expected goals here
1.93
1.08
Our own ratings from every Liga De Expansión MX result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atlante FC to win✗
43%
2.31
1.84
Double chance
Either team to win✗
77%
1.30
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
61%
1.63
1.73 ▲
Draw no bet
Atlante FC (draw no bet)
56%
1.77
–
Asian handicap
Atlante FC +1 (Asian handicap)✓
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.93
1.90
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.44
1.33
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
1.11
First team to score
Leones Negros UDG to score first
50%
1.99
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.44
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Leones Negros UDG / FT Leones Negros UDG✗
25%
4.04
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.88
–
Recent results
Leones Negros UDG – last 1
D
15 Feb
vs Tepatitlán
0–0
D
0.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Atlante FC – last 3
WWD
26 Feb
@ Irapuato
5–0
W
22 Feb
vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1–0
W
14 Feb
@ Correcaminos Uat
1–1
D
2.3Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Leones Negros UDG and Atlante FC.
What is the prediction for Leones Negros UDG vs Atlante FC?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Leones Negros UDG vs Atlante FC?
On our numbers Leones Negros UDG have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Atlante FC 43%.
How many goals will there be in Leones Negros UDG vs Atlante FC?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leones Negros UDG vs Atlante FC?
Our predicted score is Leones Negros UDG 1–1 Atlante FC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Leones Negros UDG vs Atlante FC?
Leones Negros UDG vs Atlante FC (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Jalisco.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
