Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
Picks by market
ResultMonarcas to win ✗56% · @1.81
Double chanceMonarcas or draw ✓79% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗63% · @1.55
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.16
Monarcas vs Tlaxcala: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Monarcas welcome Tlaxcala to Estadio Morelos for a Liga De Expansión MX fixture on Sunday 12 April (02:00 WAT). In the table, Monarcas are 3rd, among the top four, on 26 points after 15 matches; Tlaxcala are 8th (upper half) with 22.
Current form
Monarcas, last 5: LWLWL Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Leones Negros UDG, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Tlaxcala, last 5: LWDDL Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Tapatío, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Monarcas 1.8 xG, Tlaxcala 1.1 xG – a total near 2.9. That is an open game on paper: 57% for three or more goals, 63% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Monarcas 56%, draw 23%, Tlaxcala 21%.
Lower-risk option: Monarcas or draw (79%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (63%) at 1.55.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Monarcas or draw (79%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Monarcas 1–1 Tlaxcala. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Monarcas56%fair 1.78 · @1.81
Draw23%fair 4.33 · @3.80
Tlaxcala21%fair 4.83 · @3.95
2.91Expected goals
1.83Monarcas xG
1.09Tlaxcala xG
63%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–010%
2–110%
2–09%
3–16%
0–16%
From our goals model: Monarcas 1.8 – 1.1 Tlaxcala expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Monarcas
Tlaxcala
Attack vs Liga De Expansión MX average
-0%
+16%
Goals conceded vs average
-15%
-0%
Our expected goals here
1.85
1.20
Our own ratings from every Liga De Expansión MX result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Monarcas to win✗
56%
1.78
1.81
Double chance
Monarcas or draw✓
79%
1.26
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
63%
1.60
1.55
Draw no bet
Monarcas (draw no bet)
73%
1.37
–
Asian handicap
Tlaxcala +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
69%
1.45
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
79%
1.27
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.76
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.54
1.50
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
1.20
First team to score
Monarcas to score first✗
59%
1.69
–
Half-time result
Monarcas ahead at half-time✗
40%
2.48
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Monarcas / FT Monarcas✗
34%
2.95
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.16
–
Recent results
Monarcas – last 6
LWLWLW
5 Apr
@ Leones Negros UDG
0–2
L
29 Mar
vs Irapuato
2–0
W
23 Mar
@ Tapatío
1–2
L
15 Mar
vs Tepatitlán
3–2
W
8 Mar
@ Atlante FC
1–2
L
1 Mar
vs CA La Paz
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Tlaxcala – last 6
LWDDLW
8 Apr
@ Tapatío
0–3
L
4 Apr
vs Dorados
2–0
W
23 Mar
@ CDS Tampico Madero
0–0
D
19 Mar
vs Atlante FC
1–1
D
8 Mar
@ CA La Paz
0–2
L
1 Mar
vs Tepatitlán
1–0
W
0.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Monarcas and Tlaxcala.
Our pick is Monarcas or draw with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Monarcas vs Tlaxcala?
On our numbers Monarcas have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Tlaxcala 21%.
How many goals will there be in Monarcas vs Tlaxcala?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Monarcas vs Tlaxcala?
Our predicted score is Monarcas 1–1 Tlaxcala, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Monarcas vs Tlaxcala?
Monarcas vs Tlaxcala (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Sunday 12 April 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Morelos.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Irapuato2
Atlante FC1