Venados FC vs Leones Negros UDG: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
02:00 WAT, Sunday 12 April: Venados FC v Leones Negros UDG in the Liga De Expansión MX, played at Estadio Carlos Iturralde Rivero. In the table, Venados FC are 6th, upper half, on 25 points after 15 matches; Leones Negros UDG are 2nd (among the top four) with 30.
Current form
Venados FC, last 5: DWLLL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with CDS Tampico Madero, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Leones Negros UDG, last 5: WDDLD Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Monarcas, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Momentum favours Leones Negros UDG, collecting 1.2 points per game to 0.7 for Venados FC.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Venados FC 2.0 xG, Leones Negros UDG 1.3 xG – a total near 3.3. That is an open game on paper: 62% for three or more goals, 63% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Venados FC 55%, draw 23%, Leones Negros UDG 22%.
Lower-risk option: Venados FC or draw (78%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (63%) at 1.53.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Venados FC or draw (78%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Venados FC 1–1 Leones Negros UDG. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Venados FC55%fair 1.83 · @1.73
Draw23%fair 4.36 · @3.95
Leones Negros UDG22%fair 4.45 · @4.20
3.29Expected goals
1.96Venados FC xG
1.33Leones Negros UDG xG
63%Both score
62%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–110%
2–110%
1–07%
2–07%
1–26%
2–26%
From our goals model: Venados FC 2.0 – 1.3 Leones Negros UDG expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Venados FC
Leones Negros UDG
Attack vs Liga De Expansión MX average
+20%
+21%
Goals conceded vs average
+1%
-14%
Our expected goals here
1.91
1.50
Our own ratings from every Liga De Expansión MX result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Venados FC to win✓
55%
1.83
1.73
Double chance
Venados FC or draw✓
78%
1.29
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
63%
1.59
1.53
Draw no bet
Venados FC (draw no bet)✓
71%
1.41
–
Asian handicap
Leones Negros UDG +1 (Asian handicap)
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
1.18
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
62%
1.62
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
60%
1.68
1.55
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.22
First team to score
Venados FC to score first✗
57%
1.75
–
Half-time result
Venados FC ahead at half-time✗
40%
2.52
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Venados FC / FT Venados FC✗
32%
3.08
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
10%
10.51
–
Recent results
Venados FC – last 6
DWLLLL
6 Apr
@ CDS Tampico Madero
1–1
D
28 Mar
vs Atlante FC
4–1
W
21 Mar
@ Tepatitlán
0–2
L
7 Mar
vs Correcaminos Uat
0–1
L
28 Feb
@ Mineros de Zacatecas
0–2
L
15 Feb
@ Monarcas
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Leones Negros UDG – last 6
WDDLDD
5 Apr
vs Monarcas
2–0
W
28 Mar
@ Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1–1
D
15 Mar
@ Dorados
1–1
D
5 Mar
@ CA La Paz
0–3
L
1 Mar
vs Atlante FC
1–1
D
15 Feb
vs Tepatitlán
0–0
D
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Venados FC and Leones Negros UDG.
What is the prediction for Venados FC vs Leones Negros UDG?
Our pick is Venados FC or draw with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Venados FC vs Leones Negros UDG?
On our numbers Venados FC have a 55% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Leones Negros UDG 22%.
How many goals will there be in Venados FC vs Leones Negros UDG?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Venados FC vs Leones Negros UDG?
Our predicted score is Venados FC 1–1 Leones Negros UDG, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Venados FC vs Leones Negros UDG?
Venados FC vs Leones Negros UDG (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Sunday 12 April 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Carlos Iturralde Rivero.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Irapuato2
Atlante FC1