Value bet: Tristan Suarez to win @ 3.60 – our chance 30% vs 28% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultDraw ✓36% · @2.62
Double chancePatronato or draw ✓70% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗54% · @1.50
GoalsUnder 1.5 goals ✗62% · fair 1.61
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–0 ✗27% · fair 3.74
Patronato vs Tristan Suarez: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
20:00 WAT, Sunday 31 May: Patronato v Tristan Suarez in the Primera Nacional. In the table, Patronato are 16th, in the drop zone, on 38 points after 36 matches; Tristan Suarez are 1st (leading the league) with 64. There are 26 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Patronato, last 5: LWDLL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Club Atlético Güemes, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Tristan Suarez, last 5: WDDLW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Quilmes, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Tristan Suarez, collecting 1.8 points per game to 0.8 for Patronato.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Patronato 0.6 xG, Tristan Suarez 0.7 xG – a total near 1.3. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 85%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Patronato 34%, draw 36%, Tristan Suarez 30%.
Lower-risk option: Patronato or draw (70%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: NG (54%) at 1.50.
Price worth noting: Tristan Suarez to win @3.60 – the bookmaker implies 28%, our ratings say 30%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Patronato or draw (70%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Patronato 0–0 Tristan Suarez. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Patronato34%fair 2.95 · @2.30
Draw36%fair 2.81 · @2.62
Tristan Suarez30%fair 3.29 · @3.60
1.32Expected goals
0.61Patronato xG
0.71Tristan Suarez xG
46%Both score
15%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–027%
0–119%
1–016%
1–112%
0–27%
2–05%
From our goals model: Patronato 0.6 – 0.7 Tristan Suarez expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Patronato
Tristan Suarez
Attack vs Primera Nacional average
-15%
-10%
Goals conceded vs average
+0%
-59%
Our expected goals here
0.43
0.70
Our own ratings from every Primera Nacional result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Draw✓
36%
2.81
2.62
Double chance
Patronato or draw✓
70%
1.44
1.25
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
54%
1.84
1.50
Draw no bet
Patronato (draw no bet)
53%
1.90
–
Asian handicap
Patronato +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
67%
1.49
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Under 1.5 goals✗
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
85%
1.17
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
95%
1.05
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
99%
1.01
–
First team to score
Tristan Suarez to score first
39%
2.55
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
61%
1.65
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✓
33%
3.02
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–0✗
27%
3.74
–
Recent results
Patronato – last 6
LWDLLD
24 May
@ Club Atlético Güemes
0–1
L
17 May
vs Chacarita Juniors
2–0
W
19 Apr
vs Deportivo Maipu
0–0
D
29 Mar
vs Colon Santa Fe
0–2
L
15 Mar
@ Quilmes
0–3
L
3 Mar
@ Atlanta
0–0
D
0.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Tristan Suarez – last 6
WDDLWW
17 May
@ Quilmes
1–0
W
19 Apr
@ San Martin Tucuman
0–0
D
14 Apr
vs Atletico DE Rafaela
0–0
D
9 Apr
@ Sarmiento Junin
0–1
L
21 Mar
vs Gimnasia Jujuy
3–0
W
2 Mar
vs San Martin S.J.
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Patronato and Tristan Suarez.
What is the prediction for Patronato vs Tristan Suarez?
Our pick is Patronato or draw with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Patronato vs Tristan Suarez?
On our numbers Patronato have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 36% and Tristan Suarez 30%.
How many goals will there be in Patronato vs Tristan Suarez?
We expect about 1.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 15% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Patronato vs Tristan Suarez?
Our predicted score is Patronato 0–0 Tristan Suarez, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.3 goals in total.
When is Patronato vs Tristan Suarez?
Patronato vs Tristan Suarez (Primera Nacional) kicks off on Sunday 31 May 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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