Argentino de Merlo v Real Pilar Prediction & Expected Goals (12 Sep) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultReal Pilar to win ✓57% · @1.80

Double chanceReal Pilar or draw ✓79% · @1.17

Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓53% · @1.53

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓85% · fair 1.18

Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✓18% · fair 5.59

Argentino de Merlo vs Real Pilar: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Argentino de Merlo welcome Real Pilar to Estadio Juan Carlos Brieva for a Primera B Metropolitana fixture on Saturday 12 September (00:00 WAT). In the table, Argentino de Merlo are 13th, lower half, on 50 points after 42 matches; Real Pilar are 7th (upper half) with 66. There are 16 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.

Current form

Argentino de Merlo, last 5: LDLDD Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to UAI Urquiza, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.

Real Pilar, last 5: LDWWD Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Talleres Remedios, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.

Momentum favours Real Pilar, collecting 1.5 points per game to 1.0 for Argentino de Merlo.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Argentino de Merlo 0.7 xG, Real Pilar 1.4 xG – a total near 2.0. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 66%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Argentino de Merlo 21%, draw 22%, Real Pilar 57%.
Lower-risk option: Real Pilar or draw (79%) at 1.17.
GG/NG: NG (53%) at 1.53.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (66%, odds 1.44). Most likely score in line with that pick: Argentino de Merlo 0–1 Real Pilar. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Argentino de Merlo21%fair 4.85 · @4.80

Draw22%fair 4.53 · @2.95

Real Pilar57%fair 1.74 · @1.80

2.05Expected goals

0.66Argentino de Merlo xG

1.39Real Pilar xG

47%Both score

34%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

0–118%

0–013%

0–212%

1–112%

1–09%

1–28%

From our goals model: Argentino de Merlo 0.7 – 1.4 Real Pilar expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Real Pilar to win ✓	57%	1.74	1.80
Double chance	Real Pilar or draw ✓	79%	1.26	1.17
Both teams to score	Not both teams to score ✓	53%	1.88	1.53
Draw no bet	Real Pilar (draw no bet) ✓	74%	1.36	–
Asian handicap	Argentino de Merlo +1 (Asian handicap)	63%	1.59	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✗	60%	1.65	1.55
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✓	66%	1.52	1.44
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	85%	1.18	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	94%	1.06	–
First team to score	Real Pilar to score first ✓	59%	1.70	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✓	48%	2.08	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Real Pilar / FT Real Pilar ✗	32%	3.09	–
Correct score	Correct score 0–1 ✓	18%	5.59	–

Argentino de Merlo – last 6

LDLDDW

6 Sep	@ UAI Urquiza	0–2	L
30 Aug	vs Villa Dalmine	0–0	D
26 Aug	@ Excursionistas	0–2	L
22 Aug	vs Arsenal Sarandi	0–0	D
15 Aug	vs Ituzaingó	1–1	D
8 Aug	@ Talleres Remedios	2–1	W

0.5Scored / game

1.0Conceded / game

33%Both scored

17%Over 2.5

Real Pilar – last 6

LDWWDD

5 Sep	vs Talleres Remedios	0–2	L
29 Aug	@ Deportivo Laferrere	1–1	D
25 Aug	vs Brown DE Adrogue	2–0	W
22 Aug	@ Deportivo Armenio	1–0	W
15 Aug	vs Flandria	0–0	D
8 Aug	@ Argentino Quilmes	0–0	D

0.7Scored / game

0.5Conceded / game

17%Both scored

0%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Excursionistas	42	24	9	9	+36	81
2	Arsenal Sarandi	42	21	14	7	+28	77
3	Sportivo Italiano	42	20	12	10	+15	72
4	Talleres Remedios	42	20	11	11	+19	71
5	Deportivo Camioneros	42	19	13	10	+15	70
6	Villa Dalmine	42	18	14	10	+12	68
7	Real Pilar	42	18	12	12	+4	66
8	Deportivo Armenio	42	17	12	13	+3	63
9	Comunicaciones	42	15	15	12	+5	60
10	Deportivo Laferrere	42	15	14	13	-2	59
11	Villa San Carlos	42	12	15	15	-5	51
12	San Martín Burzaco	42	12	15	15	-6	51
13	Argentino de Merlo	42	13	11	18	-6	50
14	Flandria	42	13	10	19	-10	49
15	Deportivo Merlo	42	11	16	15	-15	49
16	Liniers	42	11	15	16	-7	48
17	Argentino Quilmes	42	10	17	15	-8	47
18	Dock Sud	42	11	14	17	-9	47
19	Defensores Unidos	42	10	16	16	-6	46
20	Brown DE Adrogue	42	10	16	16	-12	46
21	UAI Urquiza	42	8	21	13	-10	45
22	Ituzaingó	42	1	14	27	-41	17

Team

Pts

+36

+28

+15

+19

+15

+12

-2

-5

-6

-6

-10

-15

-7

-8

-9

-6

-12

-10

-41

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Argentino de Merlo vs Real Pilar?

Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.

Who will win Argentino de Merlo vs Real Pilar?

On our numbers Argentino de Merlo have a 21% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Real Pilar 57%.

How many goals will there be in Argentino de Merlo vs Real Pilar?

We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Argentino de Merlo vs Real Pilar?

Our predicted score is Argentino de Merlo 0–1 Real Pilar, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.

When is Argentino de Merlo vs Real Pilar?

Argentino de Merlo vs Real Pilar (Primera B Metropolitana) kicks off on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Juan Carlos Brieva.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Argentino de Merlo v Real Pilar: numbers & prediction