Brown DE Adrogue 44%Draw 24%San Martín Burzaco 31%Expected goals 1.09 – 0.84
68%
Betarazi pick
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.47 · bookmaker 1.40 · Won ✓
7/10Rating
1.40Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.38 – our chance 50% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultBrown DE Adrogue to win ✗44% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗50% · @2.38
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓68% · @1.40
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗7% · fair 13.81
Brown DE Adrogue vs San Martín Burzaco: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
20:00 WAT, Saturday 12 September: Brown DE Adrogue v San Martín Burzaco in the Primera B Metropolitana, played at Estadio Lorenzo Arandilla. In the table, Brown DE Adrogue are 20th, in the drop zone, on 46 points after 42 matches; San Martín Burzaco are 12th (lower half) with 51.
Current form
Brown DE Adrogue, last 5: DDLDL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Villa San Carlos, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
San Martín Burzaco, last 5: DLWLD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Deportivo Armenio, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Brown DE Adrogue 1.1 xG, San Martín Burzaco 0.8 xG – a total near 1.9. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 68%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Brown DE Adrogue 44%, draw 24%, San Martín Burzaco 31%.
GG/NG: GG (50%) at 2.38.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.38 – the bookmaker implies 42%, our ratings say 50%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (68%, odds 1.40). Most likely score in line with that pick: Brown DE Adrogue 1–0 San Martín Burzaco. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Brown DE Adrogue44%fair 2.25 · @2.05
Draw24%fair 4.11 · @2.90
San Martín Burzaco31%fair 3.20 · @3.50
1.93Expected goals
1.09Brown DE Adrogue xG
0.84San Martín Burzaco xG
50%Both score
32%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–016%
0–015%
1–113%
0–112%
2–09%
2–17%
From our goals model: Brown DE Adrogue 1.1 – 0.8 San Martín Burzaco expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Brown DE Adrogue to win✗
44%
2.25
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
50%
1.99
2.38 ▲
Draw no bet
Brown DE Adrogue (draw no bet)✗
59%
1.71
–
Asian handicap
San Martín Burzaco +1 (Asian handicap)✓
78%
1.28
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
58%
1.72
1.57
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.40
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
1.12
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
93%
1.08
1.03
First team to score
Brown DE Adrogue to score first✗
48%
2.07
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
51%
1.97
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Brown DE Adrogue / FT Brown DE Adrogue✗
23%
4.34
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
7%
13.81
–
Recent results
Brown DE Adrogue – last 6
DDLDLW
6 Sep
@ Villa San Carlos
0–0
D
29 Aug
vs Liniers
1–1
D
25 Aug
@ Real Pilar
0–2
L
21 Aug
vs UAI Urquiza
1–1
D
15 Aug
@ Villa Dalmine
0–1
L
8 Aug
vs Excursionistas
1–0
W
0.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
San Martín Burzaco – last 6
DLWLDL
5 Sep
vs Deportivo Armenio
0–0
D
30 Aug
@ Flandria
0–2
L
25 Aug
vs Argentino Quilmes
3–2
W
22 Aug
@ Defensores Unidos
0–2
L
15 Aug
vs Comunicaciones
0–0
D
9 Aug
@ Dock Sud
1–4
L
0.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Brown DE Adrogue and San Martín Burzaco.
What is the prediction for Brown DE Adrogue vs San Martín Burzaco?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Brown DE Adrogue vs San Martín Burzaco?
On our numbers Brown DE Adrogue have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 24% and San Martín Burzaco 31%.
How many goals will there be in Brown DE Adrogue vs San Martín Burzaco?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Brown DE Adrogue vs San Martín Burzaco?
Our predicted score is Brown DE Adrogue 1–0 San Martín Burzaco, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is Brown DE Adrogue vs San Martín Burzaco?
Brown DE Adrogue vs San Martín Burzaco (Primera B Metropolitana) kicks off on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Lorenzo Arandilla.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
