Sportivo Italiano v Brown DE Adrogue Prediction & Expected Goals (19 Sep) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultSportivo Italiano to win ✗44% · @2.25

Double chanceEither team to win ✗74% · @1.40

Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · @1.67

GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓73% · fair 1.37

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.91

Sportivo Italiano vs Brown DE Adrogue: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

19:00 WAT, Saturday 19 September: Sportivo Italiano v Brown DE Adrogue in the Primera B Metropolitana, played at Republica de Italia Stadium. In the table, Sportivo Italiano are 3rd, among the top four, on 72 points after 42 matches; Brown DE Adrogue are 20th (in the drop zone) with 46. There are 26 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.

Current form

Sportivo Italiano, last 5: LWWLL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Deportivo Armenio, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.

Brown DE Adrogue, last 5: LDDLD Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to San Martín Burzaco, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game.

Momentum favours Sportivo Italiano, collecting 1.5 points per game to 0.5 for Brown DE Adrogue.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Sportivo Italiano 1.0 xG, Brown DE Adrogue 0.8 xG – a total near 1.8. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 73%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Sportivo Italiano 44%, draw 26%, Brown DE Adrogue 30%.
GG/NG: NG (51%) at 1.67.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Not both teams to score (51%, odds 1.67). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sportivo Italiano 1–0 Brown DE Adrogue. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Sportivo Italiano44%fair 2.28 · @2.25

Draw26%fair 3.89 · @2.75

Brown DE Adrogue30%fair 3.29 · @3.30

1.80Expected goals

1.02Sportivo Italiano xG

0.78Brown DE Adrogue xG

49%Both score

27%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–017%

0–017%

1–113%

0–113%

2–09%

2–17%

From our goals model: Sportivo Italiano 1.0 – 0.8 Brown DE Adrogue expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Sportivo Italiano to win ✗	44%	2.28	2.25
Double chance	Either team to win ✗	74%	1.35	1.40
Both teams to score	Not both teams to score ✓	51%	1.97	1.67
Draw no bet	Sportivo Italiano (draw no bet)	59%	1.69	–
Asian handicap	Brown DE Adrogue +1 (Asian handicap) ✓	79%	1.27	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✗	54%	1.86	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✓	73%	1.37	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	89%	1.12	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	96%	1.04	–
First team to score	Sportivo Italiano to score first ✗	47%	2.11	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✓	53%	1.90	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Draw / FT Draw ✓	24%	4.12	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–0 ✗	17%	5.91	–

Sportivo Italiano – last 6

LWWLLW

12 Sep	@ Deportivo Armenio	0–1	L
5 Sep	vs Flandria	3–1	W
29 Aug	@ Argentino Quilmes	2–0	W
25 Aug	vs Defensores Unidos	0–2	L
21 Aug	@ Comunicaciones	0–1	L
15 Aug	vs Dock Sud	4–0	W

1.5Scored / game

0.8Conceded / game

17%Both scored

33%Over 2.5

Brown DE Adrogue – last 6

LDDLDL

12 Sep	vs San Martín Burzaco	0–2	L
6 Sep	@ Villa San Carlos	0–0	D
29 Aug	vs Liniers	1–1	D
25 Aug	@ Real Pilar	0–2	L
21 Aug	vs UAI Urquiza	1–1	D
15 Aug	@ Villa Dalmine	0–1	L

0.3Scored / game

1.2Conceded / game

33%Both scored

0%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Excursionistas	42	24	9	9	+36	81
2	Arsenal Sarandi	42	21	14	7	+28	77
3	Sportivo Italiano	42	20	12	10	+15	72
4	Talleres Remedios	42	20	11	11	+19	71
5	Deportivo Camioneros	42	19	13	10	+15	70
6	Villa Dalmine	42	18	14	10	+12	68
7	Real Pilar	42	18	12	12	+4	66
8	Deportivo Armenio	42	17	12	13	+3	63
9	Comunicaciones	42	15	15	12	+5	60
10	Deportivo Laferrere	42	15	14	13	-2	59
11	Villa San Carlos	42	12	15	15	-5	51
12	San Martín Burzaco	42	12	15	15	-6	51
13	Argentino de Merlo	42	13	11	18	-6	50
14	Flandria	42	13	10	19	-10	49
15	Deportivo Merlo	42	11	16	15	-15	49
16	Liniers	42	11	15	16	-7	48
17	Argentino Quilmes	42	10	17	15	-8	47
18	Dock Sud	42	11	14	17	-9	47
19	Defensores Unidos	42	10	16	16	-6	46
20	Brown DE Adrogue	42	10	16	16	-12	46
21	UAI Urquiza	42	8	21	13	-10	45
22	Ituzaingó	42	1	14	27	-41	17

Team

Pts

+36

+28

+15

+19

+15

+12

-2

-5

-6

-6

-10

-15

-7

-8

-9

-6

-12

-10

-41

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Sportivo Italiano vs Brown DE Adrogue?

Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.

Who will win Sportivo Italiano vs Brown DE Adrogue?

On our numbers Sportivo Italiano have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Brown DE Adrogue 30%.

How many goals will there be in Sportivo Italiano vs Brown DE Adrogue?

We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 27% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Sportivo Italiano vs Brown DE Adrogue?

Our predicted score is Sportivo Italiano 1–0 Brown DE Adrogue, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.

When is Sportivo Italiano vs Brown DE Adrogue?

Sportivo Italiano vs Brown DE Adrogue (Primera B Metropolitana) kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Republica de Italia Stadium.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Sportivo Italiano v Brown DE Adrogue: numbers & prediction