San Martín Burzaco v Excursionistas Prediction & Expected Goals (17 Oct) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultExcursionistas to win ✗50% · @2.00

Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.36

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @2.00

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.24

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.37

San Martín Burzaco vs Excursionistas: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Saturday 17 October the Primera B Metropolitana brings San Martín Burzaco against Excursionistas at Francisco Boga Stadium. Kick-off: 19:00 WAT. In the table, San Martín Burzaco are 12th, lower half, on 51 points after 42 matches; Excursionistas are 1st (leading the league) with 81. There are 30 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.

Current form

San Martín Burzaco, last 5: LWLWW Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Arsenal Sarandi, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.

Excursionistas, last 5: WLWWW Their latest outing: 4–0 win over Villa San Carlos, at home. Scoring is no problem – 2.3 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Momentum favours Excursionistas, collecting 2.5 points per game to 1.7 for San Martín Burzaco.

Head to head

When they last met (6 Jun 2026) it ended Excursionistas 2–0 San Martín Burzaco.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give San Martín Burzaco 0.9 xG, Excursionistas 1.4 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 40%, GG 52%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – San Martín Burzaco 25%, draw 24%, Excursionistas 50%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 2.00.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (52%, odds 2.00 – longer than our fair 1.94, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: San Martín Burzaco 1–1 Excursionistas. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

San Martín Burzaco25%fair 3.98 · @3.75

Draw24%fair 4.10 · @2.90

Excursionistas50%fair 1.98 · @2.00

2.27Expected goals

0.88San Martín Burzaco xG

1.39Excursionistas xG

52%Both score

40%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

0–114%

1–113%

0–010%

0–210%

1–09%

1–29%

From our goals model: San Martín Burzaco 0.9 – 1.4 Excursionistas expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Excursionistas to win ✗	50%	1.98	2.00
Double chance	Either team to win ✗	76%	1.32	1.36
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	52%	1.94	2.00
Draw no bet	Excursionistas (draw no bet)	67%	1.50	–
Asian handicap	San Martín Burzaco +1 (Asian handicap) ✓	68%	1.47	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	66%	1.51	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✓	60%	1.66	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	81%	1.24	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	92%	1.09	–
First team to score	Excursionistas to score first ✗	55%	1.82	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✗	46%	2.17	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Excursionistas / FT Excursionistas ✗	29%	3.46	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–2 ✗	9%	11.37	–

San Martín Burzaco – last 6

LWLWWD

10 Oct	@ Arsenal Sarandi	1–3	L
3 Oct	vs Argentino de Merlo	2–1	W
26 Sep	@ Talleres Remedios	2–3	L
19 Sep	vs Deportivo Laferrere	2–1	W
12 Sep	@ Brown DE Adrogue	2–0	W
5 Sep	vs Deportivo Armenio	0–0	D

1.5Scored / game

1.3Conceded / game

67%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

Excursionistas – last 6

WLWWWW

10 Oct	vs Villa San Carlos	4–0	W
3 Oct	@ Liniers	0–1	L
26 Sep	vs Real Pilar	3–0	W
19 Sep	@ UAI Urquiza	2–1	W
13 Sep	vs Villa Dalmine	3–0	W
8 Sep	vs Ituzaingó	2–1	W

2.3Scored / game

0.5Conceded / game

33%Both scored

83%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Excursionistas	42	24	9	9	+36	81
2	Arsenal Sarandi	42	21	14	7	+28	77
3	Sportivo Italiano	42	20	12	10	+15	72
4	Talleres Remedios	42	20	11	11	+19	71
5	Deportivo Camioneros	42	19	13	10	+15	70
6	Villa Dalmine	42	18	14	10	+12	68
7	Real Pilar	42	18	12	12	+4	66
8	Deportivo Armenio	42	17	12	13	+3	63
9	Comunicaciones	42	15	15	12	+5	60
10	Deportivo Laferrere	42	15	14	13	-2	59
11	Villa San Carlos	42	12	15	15	-5	51
12	San Martín Burzaco	42	12	15	15	-6	51
13	Argentino de Merlo	42	13	11	18	-6	50
14	Flandria	42	13	10	19	-10	49
15	Deportivo Merlo	42	11	16	15	-15	49
16	Liniers	42	11	15	16	-7	48
17	Argentino Quilmes	42	10	17	15	-8	47
18	Dock Sud	42	11	14	17	-9	47
19	Defensores Unidos	42	10	16	16	-6	46
20	Brown DE Adrogue	42	10	16	16	-12	46
21	UAI Urquiza	42	8	21	13	-10	45
22	Ituzaingó	42	1	14	27	-41	17

Team

Pts

+36

+28

+15

+19

+15

+12

-2

-5

-6

-6

-10

-15

-7

-8

-9

-6

-12

-10

-41

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for San Martín Burzaco vs Excursionistas?

Our pick is Both teams to score with a 52% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.00.

Who will win San Martín Burzaco vs Excursionistas?

On our numbers San Martín Burzaco have a 25% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Excursionistas 50%.

How many goals will there be in San Martín Burzaco vs Excursionistas?

We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for San Martín Burzaco vs Excursionistas?

Our predicted score is San Martín Burzaco 1–1 Excursionistas, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.

When is San Martín Burzaco vs Excursionistas?

San Martín Burzaco vs Excursionistas (Primera B Metropolitana) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Francisco Boga Stadium.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

San Martín Burzaco v Excursionistas: numbers & prediction