Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.25 – our chance 52% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultAtletico Nacional to win ✗59% · @1.55
Double chanceAtletico Nacional or draw ✗83% · @1.11
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @2.25
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.37
Atletico Nacional vs Millonarios: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Millonarios travel to face Atletico Nacional on Thursday 5 March in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, with Estadio Atanasio Girardot the venue – the ball rolls at 01:30 WAT.
Current form
Atletico Nacional, last 5: LWWLW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Deportes Tolima, away. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Atletico Nacional 1.7 xG, Millonarios 0.9 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 52%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Atletico Nacional 59%, draw 24%, Millonarios 17%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 2.25.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.25 – the bookmaker implies 44%, our ratings say 52%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (76%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Atletico Nacional 1–0 Millonarios. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Atletico Nacional59%fair 1.70 · @1.55
Draw24%fair 4.15 · @3.70
Millonarios17%fair 5.80 · @6.50
2.60Expected goals
1.69Atletico Nacional xG
0.91Millonarios xG
52%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
1–111%
2–011%
2–110%
0–07%
0–17%
From our goals model: Atletico Nacional 1.7 – 0.9 Millonarios expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atletico Nacional to win✗
59%
1.70
1.55
Double chance
Atletico Nacional or draw✗
83%
1.21
1.11
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.93
2.25 ▲
Draw no bet
Atletico Nacional (draw no bet)✗
77%
1.29
–
Asian handicap
Millonarios +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
69%
1.44
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.82
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
76%
1.32
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.13
1.06
First team to score
Atletico Nacional to score first
60%
1.66
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.37
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atletico Nacional / FT Atletico Nacional✗
34%
2.92
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.37
–
Recent results
Atletico Nacional – last 5
LWWLW
2 Mar
@ Deportes Tolima
0–1
L
26 Feb
@ Santa Fe
2–1
W
22 Feb
vs Alianza Valledupar
3–0
W
16 Feb
@ Deportivo Cali
0–1
L
13 Feb
vs Fortaleza FC
4–1
W
1.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
40%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Millonarios – last 2
WL
27 Feb
vs Deportivo Pereira
5–1
W
22 Feb
@ Internacional de Bogota
2–3
L
3.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atletico Nacional and Millonarios.
What is the prediction for Atletico Nacional vs Millonarios?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Atletico Nacional vs Millonarios?
On our numbers Atletico Nacional have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Millonarios 17%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico Nacional vs Millonarios?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico Nacional vs Millonarios?
Our predicted score is Atletico Nacional 1–0 Millonarios, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Atletico Nacional vs Millonarios?
Atletico Nacional vs Millonarios (CONMEBOL Sudamericana) kicks off on Thursday 5 March 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Atanasio Girardot.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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