Uniao Barbarense v Paulista Prediction & Expected Goals (11 Mar) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultUniao Barbarense to win ✗48% · @2.25

Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.28

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.93

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · @1.18

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.07

Uniao Barbarense vs Paulista: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Uniao Barbarense welcome Paulista for a Paulista A3 fixture on Wednesday 11 March (23:30 WAT).

Current form

Paulista, last 5: DDLLW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Bandeirante SP, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Uniao Barbarense 1.3 xG, Paulista 0.9 xG – a total near 2.2. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 61%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Uniao Barbarense 48%, draw 24%, Paulista 28%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.93.
Price worth noting: Uniao Barbarense to win @2.25 – the bookmaker implies 44%, our ratings say 48%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (64%, odds 1.42). Most likely score in line with that pick: Uniao Barbarense 1–1 Paulista. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Uniao Barbarense48%fair 2.09 · @2.25

Draw24%fair 4.15 · @3.00

Paulista28%fair 3.57 · @3.10

2.15Expected goals

1.27Uniao Barbarense xG

0.88Paulista xG

53%Both score

39%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–015%

1–113%

0–012%

0–110%

2–09%

2–18%

From our goals model: Uniao Barbarense 1.3 – 0.9 Paulista expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Uniao Barbarense to win ✗	48%	2.09	2.25 ▲
Double chance	Either team to win ✗	76%	1.32	1.28
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	53%	1.89	1.93
Draw no bet	Uniao Barbarense (draw no bet)	63%	1.59	–
Asian handicap	Paulista +1 (Asian handicap) ✓	72%	1.38	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	64%	1.55	1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✓	61%	1.63	1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	81%	1.24	1.18
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	93%	1.07	–
First team to score	Uniao Barbarense to score first	52%	1.91	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✓	48%	2.10	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Uniao Barbarense / FT Uniao Barbarense ✗	26%	3.79	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	8%	12.07	–

Uniao Barbarense – last 2

4 Mar	vs USAC	3–0	W
25 Feb	@ EC São Bernardo	1–0	W

2.0Scored / game

0.0Conceded / game

0%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

Paulista – last 5

DDLLW

5 Mar	vs Bandeirante SP	0–0	D
1 Mar	vs Francana	2–2	D
25 Feb	@ Rio Preto	0–2	L
21 Feb	vs EC São Bernardo	0–1	L
15 Feb	@ XV de Jau	2–0	W

0.8Scored / game

1.0Conceded / game

20%Both scored

20%Over 2.5

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Uniao Barbarense vs Paulista?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.42.

Who will win Uniao Barbarense vs Paulista?

On our numbers Uniao Barbarense have a 48% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Paulista 28%.

How many goals will there be in Uniao Barbarense vs Paulista?

We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Uniao Barbarense vs Paulista?

Our predicted score is Uniao Barbarense 1–1 Paulista, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.

When is Uniao Barbarense vs Paulista?

Uniao Barbarense vs Paulista (Paulista A3) kicks off on Wednesday 11 March 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Uniao Barbarense v Paulista: numbers & prediction