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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

V-varen Nagasaki v Nagoya Grampus: numbers & prediction

J1 League · Japan · Peace Stadium

V-varen Nagasaki

WLLLW
1–2
FT

Nagoya Grampus

WWWLW
V-varen Nagasaki 33%Draw 25%Nagoya Grampus 42% Expected goals 1.33 – 1.43
75%
Betarazi pick

Over 1.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.34 · bookmaker 1.28 · Won ✓

8/10Rating
1.28Odds
1

Value bet: V-varen Nagasaki to win @ 3.30 – our chance 33% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Picks by market

ResultNagoya Grampus to win ✓42% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✓9% · fair 11.63

V-varen Nagasaki vs Nagoya Grampus: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

V-varen Nagasaki welcome Nagoya Grampus to Peace Stadium for a J1 League fixture on Sunday 3 May (09:00 WAT). In the table, V-varen Nagasaki are 9th, in the drop zone, on 21 points after 18 matches; Nagoya Grampus are 3rd (among the top four) with 31.

Current form

V-varen Nagasaki, last 5: WLLLW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Shimizu S-pulse, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.

Nagoya Grampus, last 5: WWWLW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Shimizu S-pulse, away. The attack is flying at 2.2 goals per game.

Momentum favours Nagoya Grampus, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.0 for V-varen Nagasaki.

Head to head

When they last met (21 Feb 2026) it ended Nagoya Grampus 1–3 V-varen Nagasaki.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give V-varen Nagasaki 1.3 xG, Nagoya Grampus 1.4 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 60%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – V-varen Nagasaki 33%, draw 25%, Nagoya Grampus 42%.
  • GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.67.
  • Price worth noting: V-varen Nagasaki to win @3.30 – the bookmaker implies 30%, our ratings say 33%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (75%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: V-varen Nagasaki 1–1 Nagoya Grampus. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

V-varen Nagasaki33%fair 3.06 · @3.30
Draw25%fair 3.97 · @3.45
Nagoya Grampus42%fair 2.37 · @2.10
2.76Expected goals
1.33V-varen Nagasaki xG
1.43Nagoya Grampus xG
60%Both score
51%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–112%
0–19%
1–29%
1–08%
2–18%
0–26%

From our goals model: V-varen Nagasaki 1.3 – 1.4 Nagoya Grampus expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultNagoya Grampus to win ✓42%2.372.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75%1.341.25
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓60%1.671.67
Draw no betNagoya Grampus (draw no bet) ✓56%1.77–
Asian handicapV-varen Nagasaki +0.5 (Asian handicap) ✗60%1.65–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75%1.341.28
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✓51%1.941.85
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓70%1.421.33
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓85%1.171.11
First team to scoreNagoya Grampus to score first48%2.06–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✓42%2.40–
Half-time / full-timeHT Nagoya Grampus / FT Nagoya Grampus ✗23%4.33–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✓9%11.63–

Recent results

V-varen Nagasaki – last 6

WLLLWL
29 Apr@ Shimizu S-pulse2–1W
18 Apr@ Sanfrecce Hiroshima0–2L
11 Apr@ Avispa Fukuoka0–1L
5 Aprvs Shimizu S-pulse0–3L
21 Mar@ Fagiano Okayama1–0W
18 Marvs Kyoto Sanga1–2L
0.7Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Nagoya Grampus – last 6

WWWLWL
25 Apr@ Shimizu S-pulse2–0W
4 Aprvs Cerezo Osaka3–0W
18 Marvs Sanfrecce Hiroshima2–1W
14 Marvs Vissel Kobe0–3L
7 Mar@ Avispa Fukuoka5–1W
21 Febvs V-varen Nagasaki1–3L
2.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5

Head to head

21 Feb 2026Nagoya Grampus v V-varen Nagasaki1–3
V-varen Nagasaki vs Nagoya Grampus head-to-head page →

J1 League table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Vissel Kobe181107+435
2Cerezo Osaka181107+931
3Nagoya Grampus181008+231
4Sanfrecce Hiroshima181008+830
5Gamba Osaka181008+628
6Fagiano Okayama188010-326
7Shimizu S-pulse188010-224
8Kyoto Sanga188010-623
9V-varen Nagasaki187011-821
10Avispa Fukuoka187011-1021

More J1 League predictions

League hub
FT Tokyo Verdy1 Kashiwa Reysol0 121%4.10X26%3.20253%1.95 1.0–1.7xG X2Kashiwa Reysol or draw 79%@1.22 ✗
– Cerezo Osaka1 Avispa Fukuoka1 Pens 4–3 158%1.95X23%3.45218%3.70 1.9–0.9xG 1XCerezo Osaka or draw 82%@1.25 ✓
– Kashima1 Machida Zelvia1 Pens 3–2 139%2.20X28%3.20233%3.30 1.2–1.2xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 78%@1.22 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for V-varen Nagasaki vs Nagoya Grampus?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.

Who will win V-varen Nagasaki vs Nagoya Grampus?

On our numbers V-varen Nagasaki have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Nagoya Grampus 42%.

How many goals will there be in V-varen Nagasaki vs Nagoya Grampus?

We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for V-varen Nagasaki vs Nagoya Grampus?

Our predicted score is V-varen Nagasaki 1–1 Nagoya Grampus, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.

When is V-varen Nagasaki vs Nagoya Grampus?

V-varen Nagasaki vs Nagoya Grampus (J1 League) kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 09:00 (West Africa Time) at Peace Stadium.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.