Value bet: Cerezo Osaka to win @ 2.65 – our chance 42% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultCerezo Osaka to win ✗42% · @2.65
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.27
Shimizu S-pulse vs Cerezo Osaka: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Cerezo Osaka travel to face Shimizu S-pulse on Wednesday 6 May in the J1 League, with IAI Stadium Nihondaira the venue – the ball rolls at 05:03 WAT. In the table, Shimizu S-pulse are 7th, lower half, on 24 points after 18 matches; Cerezo Osaka are 2nd (among the top four) with 31.
Current form
Shimizu S-pulse, last 5: WLLWL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Kyoto Sanga, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Cerezo Osaka, last 5: LWWLL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Sanfrecce Hiroshima, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Shimizu S-pulse 1.2 xG, Cerezo Osaka 1.4 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 57%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Shimizu S-pulse 34%, draw 25%, Cerezo Osaka 42%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.62.
Price worth noting: Cerezo Osaka to win @2.65 – the bookmaker implies 38%, our ratings say 42%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (75%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Shimizu S-pulse 1–1 Cerezo Osaka. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Shimizu S-pulse34%fair 2.97 · @2.50
Draw25%fair 4.04 · @3.50
Cerezo Osaka42%fair 2.40 · @2.65
2.66Expected goals
1.22Shimizu S-pulse xG
1.45Cerezo Osaka xG
57%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–110%
1–29%
1–08%
2–17%
0–27%
From our goals model: Shimizu S-pulse 1.2 – 1.4 Cerezo Osaka expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cerezo Osaka to win✗
42%
2.40
2.65 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
75%
1.33
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.74
1.62
Draw no bet
Cerezo Osaka (draw no bet)
55%
1.81
–
Asian handicap
Shimizu S-pulse +1 (Asian handicap)✓
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.97
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.35
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
85%
1.17
1.12
First team to score
Cerezo Osaka to score first✓
51%
1.98
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.36
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Cerezo Osaka / FT Cerezo Osaka✗
25%
4.01
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.27
–
Recent results
Shimizu S-pulse – last 6
WLLWLW
2 May
@ Kyoto Sanga
2–1
W
29 Apr
vs V-varen Nagasaki
1–2
L
25 Apr
vs Nagoya Grampus
0–2
L
5 Apr
@ V-varen Nagasaki
3–0
W
1 Apr
@ Vissel Kobe
0–2
L
22 Mar
vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
3–1
W
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Cerezo Osaka – last 6
LWWLLW
25 Apr
@ Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1–2
L
18 Apr
vs Kyoto Sanga
3–0
W
11 Apr
@ Gamba Osaka
1–0
W
4 Apr
@ Nagoya Grampus
0–3
L
18 Mar
vs Fagiano Okayama
1–2
L
14 Mar
@ Kyoto Sanga
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Shimizu S-pulse and Cerezo Osaka.
What is the prediction for Shimizu S-pulse vs Cerezo Osaka?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Shimizu S-pulse vs Cerezo Osaka?
On our numbers Shimizu S-pulse have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Cerezo Osaka 42%.
How many goals will there be in Shimizu S-pulse vs Cerezo Osaka?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Shimizu S-pulse vs Cerezo Osaka?
Our predicted score is Shimizu S-pulse 1–1 Cerezo Osaka, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Shimizu S-pulse vs Cerezo Osaka?
Shimizu S-pulse vs Cerezo Osaka (J1 League) kicks off on Wednesday 6 May 2026 at 05:03 (West Africa Time) at IAI Stadium Nihondaira.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
FC Tokyo0
JEF United Chiba3
Kashima3
Mito Hollyhock0
Machida Zelvia2
Yokohama F. Marinos0
Kawasaki Frontale1
Tokyo Verdy0