Value bet: Draw @ 3.25 – our chance 37% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultDraw37% · @3.25
Double chanceJapan or draw74% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score54% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals76% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–113% · fair 7.78
Scotland vs Japan: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Scotland welcome Japan to Hampden Park for a Friendlies fixture on Saturday 28 March (18:00 WAT).
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Scotland 1.1 xG, Japan 1.3 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 54%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Scotland 26%, draw 37%, Japan 37%.
Lower-risk option: Japan or draw (74%) at 1.36.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Draw @3.25 – the bookmaker implies 31%, our ratings say 37%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (76%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Scotland 1–1 Japan. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Scotland26%fair 3.82 · @3.00
Draw37%fair 2.70 · @3.25
Japan37%fair 2.72 · @2.32
2.42Expected goals
1.08Scotland xG
1.35Japan xG
54%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–112%
1–010%
0–09%
1–29%
0–28%
From our goals model: Scotland 1.1 – 1.3 Japan expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Scotland
Japan
Attack vs Friendlies average
+18%
+17%
Goals conceded vs average
-8%
-17%
Our expected goals here
1.00
1.33
Our own ratings from every Friendlies result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Draw
37%
2.70
3.25 ▲
Double chance
Japan or draw
74%
1.35
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
54%
1.84
1.80
Draw no bet
Japan (draw no bet)
58%
1.71
–
Asian handicap
Scotland +1 (Asian handicap)
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
70%
1.44
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
55%
1.83
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
76%
1.32
1.28
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
88%
1.13
1.09
First team to score
Japan to score first
51%
1.98
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Japan / FT Japan
25%
4.01
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–1
13%
7.78
–
Recent results
Scotland
No recent results on record.
Japan
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Scotland and Japan.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Scotland vs Japan?
On our numbers Scotland have a 26% chance of winning, the draw 37% and Japan 37%.
How many goals will there be in Scotland vs Japan?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Scotland vs Japan?
Our predicted score is Scotland 1–1 Japan, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Scotland vs Japan?
Scotland vs Japan (Friendlies) kicks off on Saturday 28 March 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Hampden Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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