Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.25 – our chance 51% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultAlianza Atletico to win59% · @1.67
Double chanceAlianza Atletico or draw82% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score51% · @2.25
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19% · fair 11.14
Alianza Atletico vs UCV Moquegua: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
UCV Moquegua travel to face Alianza Atletico on Sunday 15 March in the Primera División, with Estadio Campeones del 36 the venue – the ball rolls at 21:30 WAT. In the table, Alianza Atletico are 7th, upper half, on 28 points after 16 matches; UCV Moquegua are 17th (in the drop zone) with 12. There are 16 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Alianza Atletico, last 4: WDDD Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Deportivo Garcilaso, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
UCV Moquegua, last 3: DWL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Sport Boys, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Alianza Atletico 1.6 xG, UCV Moquegua 0.7 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 40%, GG 51%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Alianza Atletico 59%, draw 23%, UCV Moquegua 18%.
Lower-risk option: Alianza Atletico or draw (82%) at 1.17.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 2.25.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.25 – the bookmaker implies 44%, our ratings say 51%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Alianza Atletico to win (59%, odds 1.67). Most likely score in line with that pick: Alianza Atletico 1–0 UCV Moquegua. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Alianza Atletico59%fair 1.69 · @1.67
Draw23%fair 4.28 · @3.50
UCV Moquegua18%fair 5.69 · @4.80
2.30Expected goals
1.60Alianza Atletico xG
0.70UCV Moquegua xG
51%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–016%
2–013%
1–111%
0–010%
2–19%
0–17%
From our goals model: Alianza Atletico 1.6 – 0.7 UCV Moquegua expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Alianza Atletico
UCV Moquegua
Attack vs Primera División average
+10%
-42%
Goals conceded vs average
+20%
-3%
Our expected goals here
1.86
0.79
Our own ratings from every Primera División result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Alianza Atletico to win
59%
1.69
1.67
Double chance
Alianza Atletico or draw
82%
1.21
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
51%
1.97
2.25 ▲
Draw no bet
Alianza Atletico (draw no bet)
77%
1.30
–
Asian handicap
UCV Moquegua +1.5 (Asian handicap)
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
67%
1.50
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
60%
1.68
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
92%
1.09
–
First team to score
Alianza Atletico to score first
62%
1.60
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Alianza Atletico / FT Alianza Atletico
36%
2.78
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
9%
11.14
–
Recent results
Alianza Atletico – last 4
WDDD
4 Mar
vs Deportivo Garcilaso
2–0
W
27 Feb
vs ADT
0–0
D
22 Feb
@ Cienciano
1–1
D
15 Feb
vs Alianza Lima
0–0
D
0.8Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
25%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
UCV Moquegua – last 3
DWL
1 Mar
@ Sport Boys
0–0
D
23 Feb
vs Deportivo Garcilaso
1–0
W
16 Feb
@ FBC Melgar
0–4
L
0.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
0%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alianza Atletico and UCV Moquegua.
What is the prediction for Alianza Atletico vs UCV Moquegua?
Our pick is Alianza Atletico to win with a 59% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Alianza Atletico vs UCV Moquegua?
On our numbers Alianza Atletico have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 23% and UCV Moquegua 18%.
How many goals will there be in Alianza Atletico vs UCV Moquegua?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alianza Atletico vs UCV Moquegua?
Our predicted score is Alianza Atletico 1–0 UCV Moquegua, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Alianza Atletico vs UCV Moquegua?
Alianza Atletico vs UCV Moquegua (Primera División) kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 21:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Campeones del 36.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
