Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗54% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.23
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗11% · fair 8.80
Deportivo Garcilaso vs Alianza Lima: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Alianza Lima travel to face Deportivo Garcilaso on Sunday 15 March in the Primera División, with Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega the venue – the ball rolls at 00:00 WAT. In the table, Deportivo Garcilaso are 4th, among the top four, on 29 points after 16 matches; Alianza Lima are 6th (upper half) with 29. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Deportivo Garcilaso, last 4: LLLL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Cusco, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Alianza Lima, last 3: WWD Their latest outing: 3–1 win over FBC Melgar, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Alianza Lima, collecting 2.3 points per game to 0.0 for Deportivo Garcilaso.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Deportivo Garcilaso 1.2 xG, Alianza Lima 1.1 xG – a total near 2.2. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 39%, GG 46%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Deportivo Garcilaso 35%, draw 27%, Alianza Lima 38%.
GG/NG: NG (54%) at 1.83.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Not both teams to score (54%, odds 1.83). Most likely score in line with that pick: Deportivo Garcilaso 1–0 Alianza Lima. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Deportivo Garcilaso35%fair 2.88 · @3.00
Draw27%fair 3.64 · @3.00
Alianza Lima38%fair 2.64 · @2.30
2.24Expected goals
1.17Deportivo Garcilaso xG
1.07Alianza Lima xG
46%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–012%
0–111%
0–011%
2–18%
2–07%
From our goals model: Deportivo Garcilaso 1.2 – 1.1 Alianza Lima expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Deportivo Garcilaso
Alianza Lima
Attack vs Primera División average
+16%
+7%
Goals conceded vs average
-15%
-31%
Our expected goals here
1.40
1.03
Our own ratings from every Primera División result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Alianza Lima to win✗
38%
2.64
2.30
Double chance
Either team to win✗
73%
1.38
1.35
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
54%
1.84
1.83
Draw no bet
Alianza Lima (draw no bet)
52%
1.92
–
Asian handicap
Alianza Lima +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.23
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
92%
1.08
–
First team to score
Deportivo Garcilaso to score first
47%
2.14
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
47%
2.13
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Deportivo Garcilaso / FT Deportivo Garcilaso✗
22%
4.62
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
11%
8.80
–
Recent results
Deportivo Garcilaso – last 4
LLLL
8 Mar
@ Cusco
0–1
L
4 Mar
@ Alianza Atletico
0–2
L
28 Feb
vs Cienciano
2–3
L
23 Feb
@ UCV Moquegua
0–1
L
0.5Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
25%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Alianza Lima – last 3
WWD
10 Mar
vs FBC Melgar
3–1
W
21 Feb
vs Sport Boys
1–0
W
15 Feb
@ Alianza Atletico
0–0
D
1.3Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Deportivo Garcilaso and Alianza Lima.
What is the prediction for Deportivo Garcilaso vs Alianza Lima?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 54% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.83.
Who will win Deportivo Garcilaso vs Alianza Lima?
On our numbers Deportivo Garcilaso have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Alianza Lima 38%.
How many goals will there be in Deportivo Garcilaso vs Alianza Lima?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Deportivo Garcilaso vs Alianza Lima?
Our predicted score is Deportivo Garcilaso 1–0 Alianza Lima, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Deportivo Garcilaso vs Alianza Lima?
Deportivo Garcilaso vs Alianza Lima (Primera División) kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
