Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.36 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.36Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.20 – our chance 53% vs 45% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultFBC Melgar to win ✗65% · @1.36
Double chanceFBC Melgar or draw ✓87% · @1.07
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @2.20
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.45
FBC Melgar vs Atletico Grau: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
FBC Melgar welcome Atletico Grau to Estadio de la UNSA for a Primera División fixture on Sunday 15 March (19:15 WAT). In the table, FBC Melgar are 5th, upper half, on 29 points after 16 matches; Atletico Grau are 11th (lower half) with 21.
Current form
FBC Melgar, last 3: LLW Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Alianza Lima, away. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately.
Atletico Grau, last 4: WLLL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over FC Cajamarca, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give FBC Melgar 1.9 xG, Atletico Grau 0.7 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 53%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – FBC Melgar 65%, draw 21%, Atletico Grau 13%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 2.20.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.20 – the bookmaker implies 45%, our ratings say 53%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was FBC Melgar to win (65%, odds 1.36). Most likely score in line with that pick: FBC Melgar 1–0 Atletico Grau. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
FBC Melgar65%fair 1.53 · @1.36
Draw21%fair 4.68 · @4.00
Atletico Grau13%fair 7.52 · @8.50
2.65Expected goals
1.90FBC Melgar xG
0.75Atletico Grau xG
53%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
2–013%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: FBC Melgar 1.9 – 0.7 Atletico Grau expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
FBC Melgar
Atletico Grau
Attack vs Primera División average
+13%
-16%
Goals conceded vs average
-16%
-3%
Our expected goals here
1.91
0.79
Our own ratings from every Primera División result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
FBC Melgar to win✗
65%
1.53
1.36
Double chance
FBC Melgar or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.07
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.90
2.20 ▲
Draw no bet
FBC Melgar (draw no bet)
83%
1.20
–
Asian handicap
FBC Melgar -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.98
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.38
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
–
First team to score
FBC Melgar to score first✗
67%
1.50
–
Half-time result
FBC Melgar ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT FBC Melgar / FT FBC Melgar✗
41%
2.43
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.45
–
Recent results
FBC Melgar – last 3
LLW
10 Mar
@ Alianza Lima
1–3
L
27 Feb
vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas
1–2
L
16 Feb
vs UCV Moquegua
4–0
W
2.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Atletico Grau – last 4
WLLL
6 Mar
vs FC Cajamarca
1–0
W
1 Mar
@ Comerciantes Unidos
1–3
L
22 Feb
vs Juan Pablo II College
1–2
L
14 Feb
@ Sport Boys
0–1
L
0.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between FBC Melgar and Atletico Grau.
What is the prediction for FBC Melgar vs Atletico Grau?
Our pick is FBC Melgar to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win FBC Melgar vs Atletico Grau?
On our numbers FBC Melgar have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Atletico Grau 13%.
How many goals will there be in FBC Melgar vs Atletico Grau?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FBC Melgar vs Atletico Grau?
Our predicted score is FBC Melgar 1–0 Atletico Grau, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is FBC Melgar vs Atletico Grau?
FBC Melgar vs Atletico Grau (Primera División) kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 19:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio de la UNSA.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
