Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.22
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: UCV Moquegua to win @ 3.55 – our chance 31% vs 28% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultCusco to win41% · @2.12
Double chanceEither team to win72% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score53% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals80% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–28% · fair 12.83
UCV Moquegua vs Cusco: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
17:00 WAT, Saturday 21 March: UCV Moquegua v Cusco in the Primera División, played at Estadio 25 de Noviembre. In the table, UCV Moquegua are 17th, in the drop zone, on 12 points after 16 matches; Cusco are 10th (lower half) with 24. There are 12 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
UCV Moquegua, last 3: DWL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Sport Boys, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Cusco, last 4: LWWL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Cienciano, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give UCV Moquegua 1.1 xG, Cusco 1.2 xG – a total near 2.2. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 40%, GG 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – UCV Moquegua 31%, draw 28%, Cusco 41%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.91.
Price worth noting: UCV Moquegua to win @3.55 – the bookmaker implies 28%, our ratings say 31%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (80%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: UCV Moquegua 1–1 Cusco. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
UCV Moquegua31%fair 3.20 · @3.55
Draw28%fair 3.54 · @3.15
Cusco41%fair 2.47 · @2.12
2.22Expected goals
1.05UCV Moquegua xG
1.17Cusco xG
53%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–113%
1–011%
0–011%
1–28%
0–27%
From our goals model: UCV Moquegua 1.1 – 1.2 Cusco expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
UCV Moquegua
Cusco
Attack vs Primera División average
-42%
-4%
Goals conceded vs average
-3%
+2%
Our expected goals here
1.03
1.04
Our own ratings from every Primera División result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cusco to win
41%
2.47
2.12
Double chance
Either team to win
72%
1.39
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
53%
1.89
1.91
Draw no bet
Cusco (draw no bet)
56%
1.77
–
Asian handicap
UCV Moquegua +0.5 (Asian handicap)
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
66%
1.52
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
60%
1.67
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
80%
1.26
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
91%
1.10
1.06
First team to score
Cusco to score first
47%
2.13
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
47%
2.12
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Cusco / FT Cusco
22%
4.59
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2
8%
12.83
–
Recent results
UCV Moquegua – last 3
DWL
1 Mar
@ Sport Boys
0–0
D
23 Feb
vs Deportivo Garcilaso
1–0
W
16 Feb
@ FBC Melgar
0–4
L
0.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
0%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Cusco – last 4
LWWL
16 Mar
vs Cienciano
1–2
L
8 Mar
vs Deportivo Garcilaso
1–0
W
23 Feb
vs Comerciantes Unidos
3–1
W
13 Feb
@ UTC Cajamarca
0–1
L
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between UCV Moquegua and Cusco.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win UCV Moquegua vs Cusco?
On our numbers UCV Moquegua have a 31% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Cusco 41%.
How many goals will there be in UCV Moquegua vs Cusco?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for UCV Moquegua vs Cusco?
Our predicted score is UCV Moquegua 1–1 Cusco, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is UCV Moquegua vs Cusco?
UCV Moquegua vs Cusco (Primera División) kicks off on Saturday 21 March 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio 25 de Noviembre.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
