Value bet: Alianza Lima to win @ 3.30 – our chance 34% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultCienciano to win ✗40% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓73% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.05
Cienciano vs Alianza Lima: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Alianza Lima travel to face Cienciano on Saturday 16 May in the Primera División, with Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega the venue – the ball rolls at 23:45 WAT. In the table, Cienciano are 12th, lower half, on 17 points after 16 matches; Alianza Lima are 6th (upper half) with 29. There are 12 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Cienciano, last 5: LWWLW Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Puerto Cabello, away. In their own stadium the record reads 4 won, 0 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Alianza Lima, last 5: DWWWL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Sporting Cristal, at home. The attack is flying at 2.3 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Cienciano 1.3 xG, Alianza Lima 1.3 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 59%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Cienciano 40%, draw 27%, Alianza Lima 34%.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.70.
Price worth noting: Alianza Lima to win @3.30 – the bookmaker implies 30%, our ratings say 34%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (73%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Cienciano 1–1 Alianza Lima. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Cienciano40%fair 2.51 · @2.15
Draw27%fair 3.75 · @3.30
Alianza Lima34%fair 2.98 · @3.30
2.58Expected goals
1.32Cienciano xG
1.26Alianza Lima xG
59%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–010%
0–110%
2–18%
1–28%
0–08%
From our goals model: Cienciano 1.3 – 1.3 Alianza Lima expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Cienciano
Alianza Lima
Attack vs Primera División average
-4%
+7%
Goals conceded vs average
+1%
-31%
Our expected goals here
1.17
1.22
Our own ratings from every Primera División result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cienciano to win✗
40%
2.51
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✓
73%
1.36
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.68
1.70
Draw no bet
Cienciano (draw no bet)✗
54%
1.84
–
Asian handicap
Alianza Lima +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
72%
1.38
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.92
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.30
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
1.10
First team to score
Cienciano to score first✗
47%
2.12
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.30
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Cienciano / FT Cienciano✗
22%
4.56
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.05
–
Recent results
Cienciano – last 6
LWWLWW
6 May
@ Puerto Cabello
0–3
L
2 May
vs Comerciantes Unidos
1–0
W
30 Apr
vs Atletico-MG
1–0
W
23 Apr
@ Club Deportivo Los Chankas
0–1
L
20 Apr
vs UCV Moquegua
2–1
W
17 Apr
vs Puerto Cabello
2–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Alianza Lima – last 6
DWWWLW
10 May
vs Sporting Cristal
1–1
D
3 May
vs UCV Moquegua
2–1
W
19 Apr
vs Cusco
8–0
W
14 Apr
@ ADT
1–0
W
5 Apr
@ Universitario
0–1
L
22 Mar
vs Juan Pablo II College
2–0
W
2.3Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cienciano and Alianza Lima.
What is the prediction for Cienciano vs Alianza Lima?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Cienciano vs Alianza Lima?
On our numbers Cienciano have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Alianza Lima 34%.
How many goals will there be in Cienciano vs Alianza Lima?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cienciano vs Alianza Lima?
Our predicted score is Cienciano 1–1 Alianza Lima, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Cienciano vs Alianza Lima?
Cienciano vs Alianza Lima (Primera División) kicks off on Saturday 16 May 2026 at 23:45 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
