Value bet: União Santarém to win @ 2.30 – our chance 49% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultUnião Santarém to win49% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win77% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score53% · fair 1.90
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals74% · fair 1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–012% · fair 8.25
União Santarém vs Trofense: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
15:00 WAT, Saturday 11 April: União Santarém v Trofense in the Liga 3, played at Campo Cha das Padeiras. In the table, União Santarém are 4th, among the top four, on 13 points after 9 matches; Trofense are 10th (upper half) with 5.
Current form
União Santarém, last 3: LWL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Mafra, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Trofense, last 4: LWLD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to CF Os Belenenses, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give União Santarém 1.6 xG, Trofense 1.0 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 47%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – União Santarém 49%, draw 23%, Trofense 28%.
Price worth noting: União Santarém to win @2.30 – the bookmaker implies 43%, our ratings say 49%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (55%, odds 1.60). Most likely score in line with that pick: União Santarém 1–0 Trofense. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
União Santarém49%fair 2.04 · @2.30
Draw23%fair 4.33 · @3.20
Trofense28%fair 3.57 · @2.70
2.60Expected goals
1.64União Santarém xG
0.96Trofense xG
47%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–012%
1–112%
2–010%
2–110%
0–07%
0–17%
From our goals model: União Santarém 1.6 – 1.0 Trofense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
União Santarém to win
49%
2.04
2.30 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win
77%
1.30
1.28
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score
53%
1.90
–
Draw no bet
União Santarém (draw no bet)
64%
1.57
–
Asian handicap
Trofense +1 (Asian handicap)
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
73%
1.36
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
55%
1.81
1.60
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
74%
1.36
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
88%
1.14
–
First team to score
União Santarém to score first
58%
1.71
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
42%
2.36
–
Half-time / full-time
HT União Santarém / FT União Santarém
32%
3.09
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0
12%
8.25
–
Recent results
União Santarém – last 3
LWL
3 Apr
@ Mafra
1–2
L
4 Mar
vs Mafra
3–1
W
21 Feb
vs Guimaraes B
0–1
L
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Trofense – last 4
LWLD
3 Apr
vs CF Os Belenenses
0–1
L
15 Mar
@ Guimaraes B
2–1
W
8 Mar
@ Amarante
0–1
L
27 Feb
vs Mafra
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between União Santarém and Trofense.
What is the prediction for União Santarém vs Trofense?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.60.
Who will win União Santarém vs Trofense?
On our numbers União Santarém have a 49% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Trofense 28%.
How many goals will there be in União Santarém vs Trofense?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for União Santarém vs Trofense?
Our predicted score is União Santarém 1–0 Trofense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is União Santarém vs Trofense?
União Santarém vs Trofense (Liga 3) kicks off on Saturday 11 April 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Campo Cha das Padeiras.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
1º Dezembro
Sanjoanense