BFC Daugavpils 66%Draw 19%Tukums 14%Expected goals 2.05 – 0.83
78%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
Picks by market
ResultBFC Daugavpils to win ✓66% · @1.42
Double chanceBFC Daugavpils or draw ✓86% · @1.10
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.22
BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Tukums travel to face BFC Daugavpils on Sunday 1 November in the Virsliga, with Stadions Celtnieks the venue – the ball rolls at 12:00 WAT. In the table, BFC Daugavpils are 4th, among the top four, on 52 points after 36 matches; Tukums are 9th (in the drop zone) with 25. There are 27 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
BFC Daugavpils, last 5: WWWDL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over FS Jelgava, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Tukums, last 5: DLLDL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with FK Liepaja, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Momentum favours BFC Daugavpils, collecting 1.8 points per game to 0.8 for Tukums.
Head to head
When they last met (8 Aug 2026) it ended BFC Daugavpils 2–0 Tukums. The last 3 head-to-heads: BFC Daugavpils 1 win, Tukums 0, draws 2. Those games averaged 2.0 goals and saw GG land 2 times.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give BFC Daugavpils 2.1 xG, Tukums 0.8 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 57%, GG 58%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – BFC Daugavpils 66%, draw 19%, Tukums 14%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.80.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (78%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: BFC Daugavpils 2–0 Tukums. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
BFC Daugavpils66%fair 1.51 · @1.42
Draw19%fair 5.15 · @4.20
Tukums14%fair 6.93 · @5.50
2.88Expected goals
2.05BFC Daugavpils xG
0.83Tukums xG
58%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–012%
1–012%
2–110%
1–110%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: BFC Daugavpils 2.1 – 0.8 Tukums expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums?
On our numbers BFC Daugavpils have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Tukums 14%.
How many goals will there be in BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums?
Our predicted score is BFC Daugavpils 2–0 Tukums, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums?
BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums (Virsliga) kicks off on Sunday 1 November 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadions Celtnieks.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
