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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Iwaki v Matsumoto Yamaga: numbers & prediction

J2 League · Japan · Iwaki Greenfield

Iwaki

LLLLW
1–1
–Pens 3–3

Matsumoto Yamaga

WLLLW
Iwaki 50%Draw 26%Matsumoto Yamaga 24% Expected goals 1.59 – 1.15
76%
Betarazi pick

Iwaki or draw

Strong pick · fair odds 1.32 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓

8/10Rating
1.25Odds

Picks by market

ResultIwaki to win ✗50% · @1.85
Double chanceIwaki or draw ✓76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.91
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.64

Iwaki vs Matsumoto Yamaga: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Sunday 17 May the J2 League brings Iwaki against Matsumoto Yamaga at Iwaki Greenfield. Kick-off: 06:00 WAT.

Current form

Iwaki, last 5: LLLLW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Ventforet Kofu, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.

Matsumoto Yamaga, last 5: WLLLW Their latest outing: 3–0 win over FC Gifu, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.

Momentum favours Matsumoto Yamaga, collecting 1.5 points per game to 1.0 for Iwaki.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Iwaki 1.6 xG, Matsumoto Yamaga 1.1 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 52%, GG 53%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Iwaki 50%, draw 26%, Matsumoto Yamaga 24%.
  • Lower-risk option: Iwaki or draw (76%) at 1.25.
  • GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.91.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Iwaki or draw (76%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Iwaki 1–1 Matsumoto Yamaga. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Iwaki50%fair 2.00 · @1.85
Draw26%fair 3.88 · @3.40
Matsumoto Yamaga24%fair 4.12 · @3.40
2.74Expected goals
1.59Iwaki xG
1.15Matsumoto Yamaga xG
53%Both score
52%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–112%
1–010%
2–19%
2–08%
0–17%
1–27%

From our goals model: Iwaki 1.6 – 1.1 Matsumoto Yamaga expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Team ratings (Betarazi)

IwakiMatsumoto Yamaga
Attack vs J2 League average+19%+5%
Goals conceded vs average-3%-11%
Our expected goals here1.481.22

Our own ratings from every J2 League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultIwaki to win ✗50%2.001.85
Double chanceIwaki or draw ✓76%1.321.25
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓53%1.891.91
Draw no betIwaki (draw no bet)67%1.49–
Asian handicapMatsumoto Yamaga +1 (Asian handicap) ✓68%1.47–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76%1.32–
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✗52%1.93–
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓70%1.42–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓86%1.17–
First team to scoreIwaki to score first ✗54%1.84–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗41%2.41–
Half-time / full-timeHT Iwaki / FT Iwaki ✗29%3.49–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9%10.64–

Recent results

Iwaki – last 6

LLLLWW
9 Mayvs Ventforet Kofu0–1L
6 May@ Omiya Ardija2–3L
29 Aprvs FC Gifu0–1L
25 Apr@ Consadole Sapporo1–2L
19 Aprvs Parceiro Nagano1–0W
12 Apr@ Fukushima United3–2W
1.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Matsumoto Yamaga – last 6

WLLLWW
6 May@ FC Gifu3–0W
3 Mayvs Ventforet Kofu0–1L
26 Aprvs Parceiro Nagano0–1L
18 Apr@ Consadole Sapporo1–2L
12 Aprvs Omiya Ardija4–1W
29 Mar@ Fukushima United3–1W
1.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Iwaki and Matsumoto Yamaga.

Iwaki vs Matsumoto Yamaga head-to-head page →

J2 League table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Albirex Niigata161024-132
2Yokohama FC16943+1531
3Kataller Toyama16943+1431
4Vegalta Sendai16934+1330
5Omiya Ardija16862+1230
6Tegevajaro Miyazaki16853+929
7Consadole Sapporo16826+326
8Iwaki16727+423
9Jubilo Iwata16655+223
10Shonan Bellmare16583+123
11Oita Trinita16574+522
12Blaublitz Akita16556020
13Sagan Tosu16628-320
14Montedio Yamagata16619-219
15Tokushima Vortis16529-517
16Fujieda MYFC16376-416
17Vanraure Hachinohe164210-1514
18Tochigi City163310-1012
19Imabari163310-1612
20Ventforet Kofu163310-2212

More J2 League predictions

League hub
FT Yokohama FC1 Tochigi SC0 159%1.77X23%3.40218%4.10 2.1–1.0xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 77%@1.28 ✗
FT Blaublitz Akita3 Thespakusatsu Gunma1 146%2.05X25%3.10228%3.45 1.6–1.1xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 71%@1.40 ✓
FT Omiya Ardija1 Parceiro Nagano2 167%1.30X19%4.75214%6.50 2.4–1.0xG 1Omiya Ardija to win 67%@1.30 ✗
– Osaka1 Kanazawa1 Pens 2–3 149%1.95X28%3.10223%3.75 1.3–0.9xG 1XOsaka or draw 77%@1.20 ✓
– Kataller Toyama2 Tokushima Vortis2 Pens 5–6 149%2.05X24%3.40226%2.90 1.8–1.0xG GGBoth teams to score 58%@1.80 ✓
FT Kochi United0 Ehime FC1 134%2.75X27%3.10238%2.30 1.2–1.2xG GGBoth teams to score 59%@1.80 ✗
FT Imabari1 Kamatamare Sanuki2 150%1.73X26%3.35223%4.40 1.4–1.0xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 74%@1.28 ✓
FT Kagoshima United2 Roasso Kumamoto1 154%1.67X27%3.25219%4.60 1.4–0.7xG 1Kagoshima United to win 54%@1.67 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Iwaki vs Matsumoto Yamaga?

Our pick is Iwaki or draw with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.

Who will win Iwaki vs Matsumoto Yamaga?

On our numbers Iwaki have a 50% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Matsumoto Yamaga 24%.

How many goals will there be in Iwaki vs Matsumoto Yamaga?

We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Iwaki vs Matsumoto Yamaga?

Our predicted score is Iwaki 1–1 Matsumoto Yamaga, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.

When is Iwaki vs Matsumoto Yamaga?

Iwaki vs Matsumoto Yamaga (J2 League) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 06:00 (West Africa Time) at Iwaki Greenfield.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.