Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 2.10 – our chance 51% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultLDU de Quito to win ✗46% · @1.84
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.00
Libertad vs LDU de Quito: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
LDU de Quito travel to face Libertad on Sunday 8 March in the Liga Pro, with Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne the venue – the ball rolls at 01:00 WAT. In the table, Libertad are 7th on 51 points after 36 matches; LDU de Quito are 4th with 54. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Libertad 1.1 xG, LDU de Quito 1.3 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 57%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Libertad 28%, draw 26%, LDU de Quito 46%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.62.
Price worth noting: Under 2.5 goals @2.10 – the bookmaker implies 48%, our ratings say 51%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (73%, odds 1.42 – longer than our fair 1.38, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Libertad 1–1 LDU de Quito. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Libertad28%fair 3.56 · @3.80
Draw26%fair 3.92 · @3.80
LDU de Quito46%fair 2.15 · @1.84
2.35Expected goals
1.08Libertad xG
1.28LDU de Quito xG
57%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–112%
1–010%
0–010%
1–28%
0–28%
From our goals model: Libertad 1.1 – 1.3 LDU de Quito expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
LDU de Quito to win✗
46%
2.15
1.84
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.34
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.76
1.62
Draw no bet
LDU de Quito (draw no bet)✗
62%
1.60
–
Asian handicap
Libertad +1 (Asian handicap)✓
76%
1.31
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.94
2.10 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.38
1.42
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.16
1.15
First team to score
LDU de Quito to score first✓
49%
2.04
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT LDU de Quito / FT LDU de Quito✗
24%
4.24
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.00
–
Recent results
Libertad – last 2
LW
5 Mar
@ Deportivo Cuenca
0–3
L
24 Feb
vs Manta FC
1–0
W
0.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
0%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
LDU de Quito – last 2
LW
1 Mar
vs Macara
0–2
L
21 Feb
@ Orense SC
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Libertad and LDU de Quito.
What is the prediction for Libertad vs LDU de Quito?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.42.
Who will win Libertad vs LDU de Quito?
On our numbers Libertad have a 28% chance of winning, the draw 26% and LDU de Quito 46%.
How many goals will there be in Libertad vs LDU de Quito?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Libertad vs LDU de Quito?
Our predicted score is Libertad 1–1 LDU de Quito, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Libertad vs LDU de Quito?
Libertad vs LDU de Quito (Liga Pro) kicks off on Sunday 8 March 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
