Deportivo Cuenca 26%Draw 25%Independiente del Valle 48%Expected goals 0.85 – 1.54
78%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.29 · bookmaker 1.22
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Independiente del Valle to win @ 2.34 – our chance 48% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultIndependiente del Valle to win48% · @2.34
Double chanceEither team to win75% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score51% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–29% · fair 10.83
Deportivo Cuenca vs Independiente del Valle: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
19:00 WAT, Sunday 12 April: Deportivo Cuenca v Independiente del Valle in the Liga Pro, played at Estadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar. In the table, Deportivo Cuenca are 11th on 47 points after 36 matches; Independiente del Valle are 1st with 84. There are 37 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Deportivo Cuenca, last 5: WWLDW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Santos, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Independiente del Valle, last 4: DLWW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Rosario Central, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Deportivo Cuenca 0.9 xG, Independiente del Valle 1.5 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 51%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Deportivo Cuenca 26%, draw 25%, Independiente del Valle 48%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Independiente del Valle to win @2.34 – the bookmaker implies 43%, our ratings say 48%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (78%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Deportivo Cuenca 0–1 Independiente del Valle. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Deportivo Cuenca26%fair 3.82 · @3.05
Draw25%fair 3.95 · @3.15
Independiente del Valle48%fair 2.06 · @2.34
2.39Expected goals
0.85Deportivo Cuenca xG
1.54Independiente del Valle xG
51%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–114%
1–112%
0–211%
1–29%
0–09%
1–08%
From our goals model: Deportivo Cuenca 0.9 – 1.5 Independiente del Valle expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente del Valle to win
48%
2.06
2.34 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win
75%
1.34
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
51%
1.98
1.85
Draw no bet
Independiente del Valle (draw no bet)
65%
1.54
–
Asian handicap
Deportivo Cuenca +1 (Asian handicap)
63%
1.60
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
68%
1.47
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
57%
1.75
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
78%
1.29
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
89%
1.12
1.07
First team to score
Independiente del Valle to score first
58%
1.71
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente del Valle / FT Independiente del Valle
32%
3.11
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2
9%
10.83
–
Recent results
Deportivo Cuenca – last 6
WWLDWW
8 Apr
vs Santos
1–0
W
5 Apr
@ Emelec
2–0
W
17 Mar
@ Universidad Catolica
0–1
L
14 Mar
vs Leones del Norte
1–1
D
8 Mar
@ Aucas
1–0
W
5 Mar
vs Libertad
3–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Independiente del Valle – last 4
DLWW
9 Apr
@ Rosario Central
0–0
D
20 Mar
@ Emelec
0–2
L
3 Mar
@ Manta FC
2–0
W
23 Feb
vs Guayaquil City FC
2–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Deportivo Cuenca and Independiente del Valle.
What is the prediction for Deportivo Cuenca vs Independiente del Valle?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Deportivo Cuenca vs Independiente del Valle?
On our numbers Deportivo Cuenca have a 26% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Independiente del Valle 48%.
How many goals will there be in Deportivo Cuenca vs Independiente del Valle?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Deportivo Cuenca vs Independiente del Valle?
Our predicted score is Deportivo Cuenca 0–1 Independiente del Valle, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Deportivo Cuenca vs Independiente del Valle?
Deportivo Cuenca vs Independiente del Valle (Liga Pro) kicks off on Sunday 12 April 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
