Value bet: Libertad to win @ 3.65 – our chance 34% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +26%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultOrense SC to win ✓40% · @1.97
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓8% · fair 12.45
Orense SC vs Libertad: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Orense SC welcome Libertad to Estadio 9 de Mayo for a Liga Pro fixture on Sunday 12 April (01:00 WAT). In the table, Orense SC are 13th on 39 points after 36 matches; Libertad are 7th with 51. There are 12 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Orense SC, last 5: LWDLD Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Aucas, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Libertad, last 5: DDLWL Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Mushuc Runa SC, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Orense SC 1.3 xG, Libertad 1.3 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 60%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Orense SC 40%, draw 25%, Libertad 34%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.75.
Price worth noting: Libertad to win @3.65 – the bookmaker implies 27%, our ratings say 34%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (73%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Orense SC 1–1 Libertad. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Orense SC40%fair 2.48 · @1.97
Draw25%fair 3.95 · @3.45
Libertad34%fair 2.90 · @3.65
2.57Expected goals
1.27Orense SC xG
1.30Libertad xG
60%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–110%
1–010%
1–28%
2–18%
0–08%
From our goals model: Orense SC 1.3 – 1.3 Libertad expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Orense SC to win✓
40%
2.48
1.97
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.34
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.68
1.75
Draw no bet
Orense SC (draw no bet)✓
54%
1.86
–
Asian handicap
Orense SC +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.60
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.38
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.92
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.36
1.30
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
1.10
First team to score
Libertad to score first✗
47%
2.14
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.30
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Libertad / FT Libertad✗
21%
4.65
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
8%
12.45
–
Recent results
Orense SC – last 6
LWDLDL
24 Mar
@ Aucas
2–3
L
19 Mar
vs Mushuc Runa SC
3–2
W
10 Mar
vs Manta FC
1–1
D
6 Mar
vs Macara
0–1
L
28 Feb
@ Tecnico Universitario
1–1
D
21 Feb
vs LDU de Quito
1–2
L
1.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Libertad – last 6
DDLWLW
7 Apr
vs Mushuc Runa SC
2–2
D
19 Mar
vs Barcelona SC
0–0
D
13 Mar
@ Tecnico Universitario
1–2
L
8 Mar
vs LDU de Quito
2–1
W
5 Mar
@ Deportivo Cuenca
0–3
L
24 Feb
vs Manta FC
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Orense SC and Libertad.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Orense SC vs Libertad?
On our numbers Orense SC have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Libertad 34%.
How many goals will there be in Orense SC vs Libertad?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Orense SC vs Libertad?
Our predicted score is Orense SC 1–1 Libertad, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Orense SC vs Libertad?
Orense SC vs Libertad (Liga Pro) kicks off on Sunday 12 April 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio 9 de Mayo.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
