Value bet: Sport Recife to win @ 2.32 – our chance 47% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultSport Recife to win ✓47% · @2.32
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.60
Sport Recife vs Nautico Recife: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
00:30 WAT, Sunday 31 May: Sport Recife v Nautico Recife in the Serie B, played at Ilha do Retiro. In the table, Sport Recife are 9th, upper half, on 55 points after 37 matches; Nautico Recife are 15th (lower half) with 46.
Current form
Sport Recife, last 5: LWWLW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Fortaleza EC, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Nautico Recife, last 5: WWLWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Cuiaba, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.4 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Nautico Recife, collecting 2.4 points per game to 1.5 for Sport Recife.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Sport Recife 1.6 xG, Nautico Recife 0.9 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 47%, GG 54%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Sport Recife 47%, draw 26%, Nautico Recife 27%.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.70.
Price worth noting: Sport Recife to win @2.32 – the bookmaker implies 43%, our ratings say 47%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (74%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sport Recife 1–0 Nautico Recife. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Sport Recife47%fair 2.12 · @2.32
Draw26%fair 3.85 · @3.05
Nautico Recife27%fair 3.71 · @3.25
2.52Expected goals
1.58Sport Recife xG
0.94Nautico Recife xG
54%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
1–112%
2–010%
2–19%
0–08%
0–18%
From our goals model: Sport Recife 1.6 – 0.9 Nautico Recife expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Sport Recife
Nautico Recife
Attack vs Serie B average
+15%
-22%
Goals conceded vs average
+5%
+17%
Our expected goals here
1.84
0.84
Our own ratings from every Serie B result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sport Recife to win✓
47%
2.12
2.32 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.35
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.84
1.70
Draw no bet
Sport Recife (draw no bet)✓
64%
1.57
–
Asian handicap
Nautico Recife +1 (Asian handicap)✗
64%
1.57
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.88
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.30
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
1.10
First team to score
Sport Recife to score first✓
58%
1.74
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sport Recife / FT Sport Recife✓
31%
3.18
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.60
–
Recent results
Sport Recife – last 6
LWWLWL
28 May
vs Fortaleza EC
0–2
L
24 May
@ Juventude
1–0
W
21 May
@ Fortaleza EC
2–1
W
18 May
vs CRB
1–2
L
7 May
vs ASA
1–0
W
30 Apr
@ Fortaleza EC
0–2
L
0.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Nautico Recife – last 5
WWLWW
22 May
vs Cuiaba
1–0
W
27 Apr
@ Athletic Club
1–0
W
12 Apr
@ Ceara
0–1
L
1 Apr
@ Atletico Goianiense
2–1
W
22 Feb
vs Santa Cruz
2–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.4Conceded / game
20%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sport Recife and Nautico Recife.
What is the prediction for Sport Recife vs Nautico Recife?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Sport Recife vs Nautico Recife?
On our numbers Sport Recife have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Nautico Recife 27%.
How many goals will there be in Sport Recife vs Nautico Recife?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sport Recife vs Nautico Recife?
Our predicted score is Sport Recife 1–0 Nautico Recife, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Sport Recife vs Nautico Recife?
Sport Recife vs Nautico Recife (Serie B) kicks off on Sunday 31 May 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Ilha do Retiro.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
