Value bet: São Bernardo to win @ 2.38 – our chance 46% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultSão Bernardo to win ✗46% · @2.38
Double chanceSão Bernardo or draw ✗74% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗79% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.95
São Bernardo vs Ceara: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Ceara travel to face São Bernardo on Sunday 26 July in the Serie B, with Estádio Primeiro de Maio the venue – the ball rolls at 20:00 WAT. In the table, São Bernardo are 11th, lower half, on 52 points after 37 matches; Ceara are 16th (lower half) with 43.
Current form
São Bernardo, last 5: LDDLL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Athletic Club, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Ceara, last 5: LDDLL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to CRB, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.2 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give São Bernardo 1.5 xG, Ceara 0.9 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 40%, GG 52%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – São Bernardo 46%, draw 27%, Ceara 26%.
Lower-risk option: São Bernardo or draw (74%) at 1.30.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.95.
Price worth noting: São Bernardo to win @2.38 – the bookmaker implies 42%, our ratings say 46%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was São Bernardo or draw (74%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: São Bernardo 1–0 Ceara. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
São Bernardo46%fair 2.16 · @2.38
Draw27%fair 3.64 · @2.82
Ceara26%fair 3.79 · @3.40
2.40Expected goals
1.48São Bernardo xG
0.92Ceara xG
52%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
1–112%
2–010%
2–19%
0–09%
0–18%
From our goals model: São Bernardo 1.5 – 0.9 Ceara expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
São Bernardo
Ceara
Attack vs Serie B average
+20%
-12%
Goals conceded vs average
+3%
+10%
Our expected goals here
1.80
0.92
Our own ratings from every Serie B result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
São Bernardo to win✗
46%
2.16
2.38 ▲
Double chance
São Bernardo or draw✗
74%
1.36
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.92
1.95
Draw no bet
São Bernardo (draw no bet)✗
64%
1.57
–
Asian handicap
Ceara +1 (Asian handicap)✓
66%
1.51
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
1.50
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
60%
1.67
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
79%
1.27
1.18
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
90%
1.11
1.05
First team to score
São Bernardo to score first✓
56%
1.79
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT São Bernardo / FT São Bernardo✗
30%
3.35
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.95
–
Recent results
São Bernardo – last 6
LDDLLL
23 Jul
@ Athletic Club
1–2
L
17 Jul
vs Avai
1–1
D
12 Jul
vs Cuiaba
2–2
D
6 Jul
@ Vila Nova
1–2
L
27 Jun
@ Criciuma
0–1
L
21 Jun
vs Juventude
0–1
L
0.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Ceara – last 6
LDDLLL
22 Jul
vs CRB
0–1
L
17 Jul
@ America Mineiro
1–1
D
14 Jul
vs Athletic Club
0–0
D
5 Jul
@ Goias
0–2
L
28 Jun
@ Juventude
0–2
L
20 Jun
vs Botafogo SP
0–1
L
0.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between São Bernardo and Ceara.
Our pick is São Bernardo or draw with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win São Bernardo vs Ceara?
On our numbers São Bernardo have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Ceara 26%.
How many goals will there be in São Bernardo vs Ceara?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for São Bernardo vs Ceara?
Our predicted score is São Bernardo 1–0 Ceara, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is São Bernardo vs Ceara?
São Bernardo vs Ceara (Serie B) kicks off on Sunday 26 July 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Primeiro de Maio.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
