Value bet: Vila Nova to win @ 2.50 – our chance 43% vs 40% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultVila Nova to win ✗43% · @2.50
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗78% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 11.81
São Bernardo vs Vila Nova: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
20:30 WAT, Saturday 24 October: São Bernardo v Vila Nova in the Serie B, played at Estadio Primeiro de Maio. In the table, São Bernardo are 11th, lower half, on 52 points after 37 matches; Vila Nova are 3rd (among the top four) with 66. There are 14 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
São Bernardo, last 5: LDLWD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Criciuma, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Vila Nova, last 5: DWDWW Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Novorizontino, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 5 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Vila Nova, collecting 2.3 points per game to 1.3 for São Bernardo.
Head to head
When they last met (6 Jul 2026) it ended Vila Nova 2–1 São Bernardo.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give São Bernardo 1.1 xG, Vila Nova 1.3 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – São Bernardo 33%, draw 25%, Vila Nova 43%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.91.
Price worth noting: Vila Nova to win @2.50 – the bookmaker implies 40%, our ratings say 43%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (53%, odds 1.91). Most likely score in line with that pick: São Bernardo 1–1 Vila Nova. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
São Bernardo33%fair 3.05 · @2.80
Draw25%fair 4.08 · @2.90
Vila Nova43%fair 2.34 · @2.50
2.41Expected goals
1.10São Bernardo xG
1.31Vila Nova xG
53%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–112%
1–010%
0–09%
1–28%
0–28%
From our goals model: São Bernardo 1.1 – 1.3 Vila Nova expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for São Bernardo vs Vila Nova?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.91.
Who will win São Bernardo vs Vila Nova?
On our numbers São Bernardo have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Vila Nova 43%.
How many goals will there be in São Bernardo vs Vila Nova?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for São Bernardo vs Vila Nova?
Our predicted score is São Bernardo 1–1 Vila Nova, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is São Bernardo vs Vila Nova?
São Bernardo vs Vila Nova (Serie B) kicks off on Saturday 24 October 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Primeiro de Maio.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
