Caxias v Paysandu Prediction & Expected Goals (17 May) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultCaxias to win ✓41% · @2.30

Double chanceEither team to win ✓72% · @1.30

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @2.05

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · fair 1.26

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 11.79

Caxias vs Paysandu: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Caxias welcome Paysandu to Estadio Francisco Stedile for a Serie C fixture on Sunday 17 May (20:00 WAT). In the table, Caxias are 14th on 25 points after 19 matches; Paysandu are 4th with 5. There are 20 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.

Current form

Caxias, last 5: DWWLW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with São Bernardo, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.7 conceded per game.

Paysandu, last 5: DWWLW Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Vasco DA Gama, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. 2.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Caxias 1.3 xG, Paysandu 1.0 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 39%, GG 53%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Caxias 41%, draw 28%, Paysandu 31%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 2.05.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.05 – the bookmaker implies 49%, our ratings say 53%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (65%, odds 1.50). Most likely score in line with that pick: Caxias 1–1 Paysandu. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Caxias41%fair 2.43 · @2.30

Draw28%fair 3.58 · @2.90

Paysandu31%fair 3.24 · @3.10

2.33Expected goals

1.30Caxias xG

1.02Paysandu xG

53%Both score

39%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–113%

1–013%

0–110%

0–010%

2–18%

2–08%

From our goals model: Caxias 1.3 – 1.0 Paysandu expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Caxias to win ✓	41%	2.43	2.30
Double chance	Either team to win ✓	72%	1.39	1.30
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✗	53%	1.90	2.05 ▲
Draw no bet	Caxias (draw no bet) ✓	57%	1.75	–
Asian handicap	Paysandu +1 (Asian handicap) ✗	74%	1.34	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	65%	1.54	1.50
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✓	61%	1.63	1.45
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	79%	1.26	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	91%	1.10	–
First team to score	Caxias to score first ✓	51%	1.98	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✗	46%	2.18	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Caxias / FT Caxias ✓	25%	4.02	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	8%	11.79	–

Caxias – last 6

DWWLWW

7 May	@ São Bernardo	1–1	D
1 May	vs Volta Redonda	2–0	W
28 Apr	vs Ypiranga-RS	2–1	W
16 Apr	@ Avai	0–1	L
8 Apr	vs Juventude	1–0	W
29 Mar	@ America Mineiro	2–1	W

1.3Scored / game

0.7Conceded / game

50%Both scored

33%Over 2.5

Paysandu – last 6

DWWLWL

13 May	@ Vasco DA Gama	2–2	D
6 May	@ Águia de Marabá	5–1	W
29 Apr	@ Trem	3–0	W
22 Apr	vs Vasco DA Gama	0–2	L
15 Apr	vs Independência	2–1	W
10 Apr	@ Nacional AM	0–7	L

2.0Scored / game

2.2Conceded / game

50%Both scored

83%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Botafogo PB	19	10	3	6	+9	33
2	Brusque	19	9	5	5	+6	32
3	Ferroviária	19	8	6	5	+7	30
4	Maringá	19	8	6	5	+2	30
5	Floresta	19	8	6	5	+2	30
6	Inter De Limeira	19	8	6	5	+2	30
7	Paysandu	19	9	2	8	-1	29
8	Santa Cruz	19	8	5	6	+5	29
9	Ypiranga-RS	19	8	5	6	+3	29
10	Guarani Campinas	19	7	7	5	+10	28
11	Figueirense	19	7	7	5	-3	28
12	Maranhão	19	7	6	6	+1	27
13	Amazonas	19	7	5	7	-2	26
14	Caxias	19	6	7	6	+1	25
15	Ituano	19	6	4	9	-3	22
16	Volta Redonda	19	6	3	10	-12	21
17	Barra	19	5	6	8	0	21
18	Anápolis	19	5	4	10	-5	19
19	AO Itabaiana	19	4	5	10	-13	17
20	Confiança	19	3	4	12	-9	13

Team

Pts

-1

+10

-3

-2

-3

-12

-5

-13

-9

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Caxias vs Paysandu?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.

Who will win Caxias vs Paysandu?

On our numbers Caxias have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Paysandu 31%.

How many goals will there be in Caxias vs Paysandu?

We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Caxias vs Paysandu?

Our predicted score is Caxias 1–1 Paysandu, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.

When is Caxias vs Paysandu?

Caxias vs Paysandu (Serie C) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Francisco Stedile.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Caxias v Paysandu: numbers & prediction