Italy travel to face Belgium on Sunday 15 November in the UEFA Nations League – the ball rolls at 20:45 WAT. In the table, Belgium are 3rd on 6 points after 4 matches; Italy are 2nd with 7. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Belgium, last 5: LWLWL Their latest outing: 1–4 defeat to France, away. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Italy, last 5: WDWLW Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Türkiye, at home. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Italy, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.5 for Belgium.
Head to head
When they last met (25 Sep 2026) it ended Italy 0–2 Belgium.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Belgium 1.5 xG, Italy 1.5 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 57% for three or more goals, 64% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Belgium 40%, draw 23%, Italy 37%.
GG/NG: GG (64%) at 1.53.
Betarazi verdict
The Betarazi pick is Under 3.5 goals (65%, odds 1.40). Most likely score in line with that pick: Belgium 1–1 Italy. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Belgium40%fair 2.52 · @2.18
Draw23%fair 4.28 · @3.76
Italy37%fair 2.70 · @2.78
2.97Expected goals
1.49Belgium xG
1.48Italy xG
64%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
2–18%
1–28%
1–08%
0–18%
2–26%
From our goals model: Belgium 1.5 – 1.5 Italy expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Belgium
Italy
Attack vs UEFA Nations League average
+12%
+22%
Goals conceded vs average
+0%
+4%
Our expected goals here
1.43
1.50
Our own ratings from every UEFA Nations League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Belgium vs Italy?
On our numbers Belgium have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Italy 37%.
How many goals will there be in Belgium vs Italy?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Belgium vs Italy?
Our predicted score is Belgium 1–1 Italy, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Belgium vs Italy?
Belgium vs Italy (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Sunday 15 November 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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