Estonia 45%Draw 27%Bulgaria 28%Expected goals 0.91 – 0.62
93%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.07
10/10Rating
–Odds
Picks by market
ResultEstonia to win45% · fair 2.24
Double chanceEither team to win73% · fair 1.38
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score63% · fair 1.59
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–020% · fair 5.05
Estonia vs Bulgaria: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Bulgaria travel to face Estonia on Monday 16 November in the UEFA Nations League – the ball rolls at 18:00 WAT. In the table, Estonia are 2nd on 6 points after 4 matches; Bulgaria are 3rd with 4. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Estonia, last 5: DWDDW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Iceland, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Bulgaria, last 5: WLDLD Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Luxembourg, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Momentum favours Estonia, collecting 1.5 points per game to 0.8 for Bulgaria.
Head to head
When they last met (29 Sep 2026) it ended Bulgaria 0–0 Estonia.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Estonia 0.9 xG, Bulgaria 0.6 xG – a total near 1.5. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 80% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Estonia 45%, draw 27%, Bulgaria 28%.
Betarazi verdict
Our call: Under 3.5 goals (93%). Most likely score in line with that pick: Estonia 0–0 Bulgaria. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Estonia45%fair 2.24
Draw27%fair 3.65
Bulgaria28%fair 3.58
1.53Expected goals
0.91Estonia xG
0.62Bulgaria xG
37%Both score
20%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–022%
1–020%
0–113%
1–112%
2–09%
2–16%
From our goals model: Estonia 0.9 – 0.6 Bulgaria expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Estonia
Bulgaria
Attack vs UEFA Nations League average
-23%
-13%
Goals conceded vs average
-39%
+4%
Our expected goals here
0.98
0.66
Our own ratings from every UEFA Nations League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
On our numbers Estonia have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Bulgaria 28%.
How many goals will there be in Estonia vs Bulgaria?
We expect about 1.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 20% likely and both teams score 37% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Estonia vs Bulgaria?
Our predicted score is Estonia 0–0 Bulgaria, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.5 goals in total.
When is Estonia vs Bulgaria?
Estonia vs Bulgaria (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Monday 16 November 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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