Value bet: Draw @ 3.05 – our chance 37% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultDraw ✓37% · @3.05
Double chanceBarra or draw ✓74% · @1.44
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.93
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–1 ✗12% · fair 8.16
Barra vs America Mineiro: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
America Mineiro travel to face Barra on Friday 13 March in the Copa Do Brasil, with Arena Barra FC the venue – the ball rolls at 01:30 WAT.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Barra 1.5 xG, America Mineiro 1.1 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 55%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Barra 37%, draw 37%, America Mineiro 26%.
Lower-risk option: Barra or draw (74%) at 1.44.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.93.
Price worth noting: Draw @3.05 – the bookmaker implies 33%, our ratings say 37%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Barra or draw (74%, odds 1.44 – longer than our fair 1.36, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Barra 1–1 America Mineiro. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Barra37%fair 2.73 · @2.58
Draw37%fair 2.71 · @3.05
America Mineiro26%fair 3.78 · @2.68
2.62Expected goals
1.49Barra xG
1.12America Mineiro xG
55%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
0–18%
2–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Barra 1.5 – 1.1 America Mineiro expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Draw✓
37%
2.71
3.05 ▲
Double chance
Barra or draw✓
74%
1.36
1.44 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.82
1.93 ▲
Draw no bet
Barra (draw no bet)
58%
1.72
–
Asian handicap
America Mineiro +1 (Asian handicap)✓
71%
1.42
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
69%
1.45
1.44
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.79
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.18
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.14
–
First team to score
Barra to score first✗
53%
1.89
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Barra / FT Barra✗
27%
3.69
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–1✗
12%
8.16
–
Recent results
Barra – last 1
D
15 Feb
@ Camboriú
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
America Mineiro – last 1
D
22 Feb
@ Atletico-MG
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Barra and America Mineiro.
What is the prediction for Barra vs America Mineiro?
Our pick is Barra or draw with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Barra vs America Mineiro?
On our numbers Barra have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 37% and America Mineiro 26%.
How many goals will there be in Barra vs America Mineiro?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Barra vs America Mineiro?
Our predicted score is Barra 1–1 America Mineiro, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Barra vs America Mineiro?
Barra vs America Mineiro (Copa Do Brasil) kicks off on Friday 13 March 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Arena Barra FC.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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