Arsenal Tula 30%Draw 27%Fakel 43%Expected goals 1.08 – 1.33
65%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.57 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.57Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.20 – our chance 53% vs 45% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultFakel to win ✓43% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✓73% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @2.20
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.09
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✓9% · fair 11.64
Arsenal Tula vs Fakel: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Arsenal Tula welcome Fakel to Stadion Arsenal for a First League fixture on Sunday 5 April (14:00 WAT).
Current form
Arsenal Tula, last 5: WWLLL Their latest outing: 3–1 win over FK Sokol Saratov, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Fakel, last 3: WLW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over FK Neftekhimik, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Fakel, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.2 for Arsenal Tula.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Arsenal Tula 1.1 xG, Fakel 1.3 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 39%, GG 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Arsenal Tula 30%, draw 27%, Fakel 43%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 2.20.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.20 – the bookmaker implies 45%, our ratings say 53%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (65%, odds 1.57). Most likely score in line with that pick: Arsenal Tula 1–1 Fakel. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Arsenal Tula30%fair 3.31 · @3.38
Draw27%fair 3.70 · @2.95
Fakel43%fair 2.34 · @2.25
2.42Expected goals
1.08Arsenal Tula xG
1.33Fakel xG
53%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–112%
1–010%
0–09%
1–29%
0–28%
From our goals model: Arsenal Tula 1.1 – 1.3 Fakel expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Arsenal Tula
Fakel
Attack vs First League average
-6%
-1%
Goals conceded vs average
+37%
-6%
Our expected goals here
1.31
1.58
Our own ratings from every First League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Fakel to win✓
43%
2.34
2.25
Double chance
Either team to win✓
73%
1.37
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.89
2.20 ▲
Draw no bet
Fakel (draw no bet)✓
59%
1.71
–
Asian handicap
Arsenal Tula +1 (Asian handicap)
75%
1.34
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
1.57
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
61%
1.64
1.38
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
1.09
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
1.01
First team to score
Fakel to score first
50%
1.99
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Fakel / FT Fakel✓
25%
4.07
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✓
9%
11.64
–
Recent results
Arsenal Tula – last 6
WWLLLD
29 Mar
vs FK Sokol Saratov
3–1
W
22 Mar
@ Ska-khabarovsk
3–1
W
15 Mar
@ Ural
0–2
L
9 Mar
vs Volga Ulyanovsk
0–1
L
5 Mar
vs Lokomotiv
1–2
L
27 Feb
@ KAMAZ
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Fakel – last 3
WLW
1 Apr
@ FK Neftekhimik
2–0
W
20 Mar
@ Rotor Volgograd
0–1
L
27 Feb
vs Ural
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Arsenal Tula and Fakel.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Arsenal Tula vs Fakel?
On our numbers Arsenal Tula have a 30% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Fakel 43%.
How many goals will there be in Arsenal Tula vs Fakel?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Arsenal Tula vs Fakel?
Our predicted score is Arsenal Tula 1–1 Fakel, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Arsenal Tula vs Fakel?
Arsenal Tula vs Fakel (First League) kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Arsenal.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
FK Sokol Saratov1
Rodina Moskva3
Chayka0