Santos 55%Draw 25%San Lorenzo 20%Expected goals 1.43 – 0.69
79%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
Picks by market
ResultSantos to win ✗55% · @1.80
Double chanceSantos or draw ✓80% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓50% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗79% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 11.82
Santos vs San Lorenzo: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Santos welcome San Lorenzo to Estádio Urbano Caldeira for a CONMEBOL Sudamericana fixture on Wednesday 20 May (23:00 WAT). In the table, Santos are 2nd on 7 points after 6 matches; San Lorenzo are 3rd with 7. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Santos, last 5: LWDDD Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Coritiba, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
San Lorenzo, last 5: DDWDW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Deportivo Cuenca, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours San Lorenzo, collecting 1.7 points per game to 1.2 for Santos.
Head to head
When they last met (28 Apr 2026) it ended San Lorenzo 1–1 Santos.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Santos 1.4 xG, San Lorenzo 0.7 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 60%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Santos 55%, draw 25%, San Lorenzo 20%.
Lower-risk option: Santos or draw (80%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (50%) at 1.95.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (79%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Santos 1–0 San Lorenzo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Santos55%fair 1.81 · @1.80
Draw25%fair 3.99 · @3.45
San Lorenzo20%fair 5.04 · @4.45
2.12Expected goals
1.43Santos xG
0.69San Lorenzo xG
50%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–017%
2–012%
0–012%
1–112%
2–18%
0–18%
From our goals model: Santos 1.4 – 0.7 San Lorenzo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Santos vs San Lorenzo?
On our numbers Santos have a 55% chance of winning, the draw 25% and San Lorenzo 20%.
How many goals will there be in Santos vs San Lorenzo?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Santos vs San Lorenzo?
Our predicted score is Santos 1–0 San Lorenzo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Santos vs San Lorenzo?
Santos vs San Lorenzo (CONMEBOL Sudamericana) kicks off on Wednesday 20 May 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Urbano Caldeira.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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