Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 2.05 – our chance 52% vs 49% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultBolívar to win ✓45% · @1.97
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.62
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.40
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.74
Bolívar vs Fluminense: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
23:00 WAT, Thursday 30 April: Bolívar v Fluminense in the CONMEBOL Libertadores, played at Estadio Hernando Siles. In the table, Bolívar are 3rd on 5 points after 6 matches; Fluminense are 2nd with 8. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Bolívar, last 5: LDLWL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Independiente Petrolero, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. 2.3 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Fluminense, last 5: DLDDW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Operario-PR, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Bolívar 1.3 xG, Fluminense 1.0 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 59%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Bolívar 45%, draw 25%, Fluminense 30%.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.62.
Price worth noting: Under 2.5 goals @2.05 – the bookmaker implies 49%, our ratings say 52%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (73%, odds 1.40 – longer than our fair 1.37, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Bolívar 1–1 Fluminense. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Bolívar45%fair 2.22 · @1.97
Draw25%fair 4.07 · @3.65
Fluminense30%fair 3.30 · @3.45
2.36Expected goals
1.31Bolívar xG
1.04Fluminense xG
59%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–012%
0–110%
0–09%
2–19%
2–08%
From our goals model: Bolívar 1.3 – 1.0 Fluminense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Bolívar to win✓
45%
2.22
1.97
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.69
1.62
Draw no bet
Bolívar (draw no bet)✓
60%
1.67
–
Asian handicap
Fluminense +1 (Asian handicap)✗
75%
1.34
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.92
2.05 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.40
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
1.14
First team to score
Bolívar to score first✓
50%
1.98
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.20
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Bolívar / FT Bolívar✓
25%
4.04
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.74
–
Recent results
Bolívar – last 6
LDLWLW
22 Apr
vs Independiente Petrolero
1–2
L
15 Apr
vs Deportivo La Guaira
1–1
D
7 Apr
@ Independ. Rivadavia
0–1
L
3 Apr
vs Real Oruro
5–2
W
5 Mar
@ Always Ready
2–3
L
26 Feb
vs Blooming
5–1
W
2.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Fluminense – last 6
DLDDWL
24 Apr
@ Operario-PR
0–0
D
16 Apr
vs Independ. Rivadavia
1–2
L
7 Apr
@ Deportivo La Guaira
0–0
D
5 Apr
@ Coritiba
1–1
D
2 Apr
vs Corinthians
3–1
W
19 Mar
@ Vasco DA Gama
2–3
L
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bolívar and Fluminense.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Bolívar vs Fluminense?
On our numbers Bolívar have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Fluminense 30%.
How many goals will there be in Bolívar vs Fluminense?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Bolívar vs Fluminense?
Our predicted score is Bolívar 1–1 Fluminense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Bolívar vs Fluminense?
Bolívar vs Fluminense (CONMEBOL Libertadores) kicks off on Thursday 30 April 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Hernando Siles.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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