Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.25 – our chance 53% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultIndepend. Rivadavia to win ✓59% · @1.35
Double chanceIndepend. Rivadavia or draw ✓80% · @1.05
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @2.25
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗75% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.93
Independ. Rivadavia vs Deportivo La Guaira: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Deportivo La Guaira travel to face Independ. Rivadavia on Thursday 30 April in the CONMEBOL Libertadores, with Estadio Malvinas Argentinas the venue – the ball rolls at 23:00 WAT. In the table, Independ. Rivadavia are 1st on 16 points after 6 matches; Deportivo La Guaira are 4th with 3. There are 13 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Independ. Rivadavia, last 5: DWWWW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Banfield, away. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Deportivo La Guaira, last 5: DDWDD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Portuguesa FC, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Independ. Rivadavia, collecting 2.7 points per game to 1.3 for Deportivo La Guaira.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Independ. Rivadavia 1.5 xG, Deportivo La Guaira 0.9 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 53%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Independ. Rivadavia 59%, draw 22%, Deportivo La Guaira 20%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 2.25.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.25 – the bookmaker implies 44%, our ratings say 53%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (75%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Independ. Rivadavia 1–0 Deportivo La Guaira. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Independ. Rivadavia59%fair 1.71 · @1.35
Draw22%fair 4.61 · @4.40
Deportivo La Guaira20%fair 5.09 · @10.00
2.40Expected goals
1.48Independ. Rivadavia xG
0.91Deportivo La Guaira xG
53%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
1–112%
2–010%
2–19%
0–09%
0–18%
From our goals model: Independ. Rivadavia 1.5 – 0.9 Deportivo La Guaira expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independ. Rivadavia to win✓
59%
1.71
1.35
Double chance
Independ. Rivadavia or draw✓
80%
1.24
1.05
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.88
2.25 ▲
Draw no bet
Independ. Rivadavia (draw no bet)✓
75%
1.34
–
Asian handicap
Deportivo La Guaira +1 (Asian handicap)✗
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.42
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.84
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
75%
1.33
1.30
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
88%
1.14
1.10
First team to score
Independ. Rivadavia to score first
56%
1.77
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independ. Rivadavia / FT Independ. Rivadavia✓
30%
3.31
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.93
–
Recent results
Independ. Rivadavia – last 6
DWWWWW
20 Apr
@ Banfield
0–0
D
16 Apr
@ Fluminense
2–1
W
7 Apr
vs Bolívar
1–0
W
2 Apr
@ Tigre
2–0
W
23 Mar
vs Rosario Central
2–0
W
15 Mar
@ Gimnasia L.P.
3–2
W
1.7Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Deportivo La Guaira – last 6
DDWDDD
21 Apr
vs Portuguesa FC
0–0
D
15 Apr
@ Bolívar
1–1
D
10 Apr
@ Deportivo Tachira FC
3–2
W
7 Apr
vs Fluminense
0–0
D
3 Apr
vs Carabobo FC
1–1
D
17 Mar
@ Academia Anzoátegui
0–0
D
0.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Independ. Rivadavia and Deportivo La Guaira.
What is the prediction for Independ. Rivadavia vs Deportivo La Guaira?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Independ. Rivadavia vs Deportivo La Guaira?
On our numbers Independ. Rivadavia have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Deportivo La Guaira 20%.
How many goals will there be in Independ. Rivadavia vs Deportivo La Guaira?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Independ. Rivadavia vs Deportivo La Guaira?
Our predicted score is Independ. Rivadavia 1–0 Deportivo La Guaira, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Independ. Rivadavia vs Deportivo La Guaira?
Independ. Rivadavia vs Deportivo La Guaira (CONMEBOL Libertadores) kicks off on Thursday 30 April 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Malvinas Argentinas.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Barcelona SC1
U. Catolica2
Cerro Porteno1
Palmeiras1
Estudiantes L.P.1
Flamengo1
Universitario4
Club Nacional2