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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Cerro Porteno v Palmeiras: numbers & prediction

CONMEBOL Libertadores · South America · General Pablo Rojas

Cerro Porteno

DWDLW
1–1
FT

Palmeiras

WWDWW
Cerro Porteno 19%Draw 28%Palmeiras 53% Expected goals 0.74 – 1.37
81%
Betarazi pick

Under 3.5 goals

Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓

9/10Rating
1.20Odds
GG

Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.10 – our chance 52% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓

Picks by market

ResultPalmeiras to win ✗53% · @1.85
Double chancePalmeiras or draw ✓81% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 11.89

Cerro Porteno vs Palmeiras: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Cerro Porteno welcome Palmeiras to General Pablo Rojas for a CONMEBOL Libertadores fixture on Thursday 30 April (01:30 WAT). In the table, Cerro Porteno are 1st on 13 points after 6 matches; Palmeiras are 2nd with 11. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.

Current form

Cerro Porteno, last 5: DWDLW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Sportivo Ameliano, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Palmeiras, last 5: WWDWW Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Jacuipense, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 0.7 conceded per game.

Momentum favours Palmeiras, collecting 2.7 points per game to 1.8 for Cerro Porteno.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Cerro Porteno 0.7 xG, Palmeiras 1.4 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 63%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Cerro Porteno 19%, draw 28%, Palmeiras 53%.
  • Lower-risk option: Palmeiras or draw (81%) at 1.20.
  • GG/NG: GG (52%) at 2.10.
  • Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.10 – the bookmaker implies 48%, our ratings say 52%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (81%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Cerro Porteno 0–1 Palmeiras. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Cerro Porteno19%fair 5.18 · @4.50
Draw28%fair 3.62 · @3.25
Palmeiras53%fair 1.88 · @1.85
2.11Expected goals
0.74Cerro Porteno xG
1.37Palmeiras xG
52%Both score
37%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

0–117%
1–112%
0–012%
0–211%
1–09%
1–28%

From our goals model: Cerro Porteno 0.7 – 1.4 Palmeiras expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultPalmeiras to win ✗53%1.881.85
Double chancePalmeiras or draw ✓81%1.241.20
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓52%1.942.10 ▲
Draw no betPalmeiras (draw no bet)73%1.36–
Asian handicapCerro Porteno +1 (Asian handicap) ✓65%1.53–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓64%1.571.45
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓63%1.601.57
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81%1.231.20
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓92%1.091.05
First team to scorePalmeiras to score first ✓57%1.75–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗48%2.10–
Half-time / full-timeHT Palmeiras / FT Palmeiras ✗31%3.26–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8%11.89–

Recent results

Cerro Porteno – last 6

DWDLWW
25 Aprvs Sportivo Ameliano1–1D
14 Aprvs Junior1–0W
12 Apr@ Nacional Asuncion0–0D
9 Apr@ Sporting Cristal0–1L
5 Aprvs 2 de Mayo3–0W
1 Apr@ Sportivo Luqueno3–2W
1.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Palmeiras – last 6

WWDWWW
23 Aprvs Jacuipense3–0W
16 Aprvs Sporting Cristal2–1W
9 Apr@ Junior1–1D
5 Apr@ Bahia2–1W
3 Aprvs Gremio2–1W
22 Mar@ Sao Paulo1–0W
1.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Cerro Porteno and Palmeiras.

Cerro Porteno vs Palmeiras head-to-head page →

CONMEBOL Libertadores table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Cerro Porteno6411+413
2Palmeiras6321+511
3Sporting Cristal6204-36
4Junior6114-64

More CONMEBOL Libertadores predictions

League hub
FT Barcelona SC1 U. Catolica2 139%2.15X27%3.20234%3.45 1.2–1.2xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 78%@1.22 ✓
FT Estudiantes L.P.1 Flamengo1 125%3.55X27%2.96248%2.22 1.0–1.6xG X2Flamengo or draw 75%@1.28 ✓
FT Universitario4 Club Nacional2 138%2.40X27%3.00235%3.10 1.3–1.2xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 67%@1.50 ✓
FT Bolívar2 Fluminense0 145%1.97X25%3.65230%3.45 1.3–1.0xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 73%@1.40 ✓
FT Independ. Rivadavia4 Deportivo La Guaira1 159%1.35X22%4.40220%10.00 1.5–0.9xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 75%@1.30 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Cerro Porteno vs Palmeiras?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.

Who will win Cerro Porteno vs Palmeiras?

On our numbers Cerro Porteno have a 19% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Palmeiras 53%.

How many goals will there be in Cerro Porteno vs Palmeiras?

We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Cerro Porteno vs Palmeiras?

Our predicted score is Cerro Porteno 0–1 Palmeiras, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.

When is Cerro Porteno vs Palmeiras?

Cerro Porteno vs Palmeiras (CONMEBOL Libertadores) kicks off on Thursday 30 April 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at General Pablo Rojas.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.