EC São Bernardo 40%Draw 26%Marília 34%Expected goals 1.37 – 1.04
60%
Betarazi pick
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.67 · bookmaker 1.50
5/10Rating
1.50Odds
1
Value bet: EC São Bernardo to win @ 2.80 – our chance 40% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultEC São Bernardo to win40% · @2.80
Double chanceEither team to win74% · @1.30
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score52% · fair 1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals78% · fair 1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–012% · fair 8.08
EC São Bernardo vs Marília: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Marília travel to face EC São Bernardo on Saturday 28 March in the Paulista A3 – the ball rolls at 19:00 WAT.
Current form
EC São Bernardo, last 5: LDWWL Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Portuguesa Santista, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Marília, last 4: LWDD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to XV de Jau, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give EC São Bernardo 1.4 xG, Marília 1.0 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 40%, GG 48%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – EC São Bernardo 40%, draw 26%, Marília 34%.
Price worth noting: EC São Bernardo to win @2.80 – the bookmaker implies 36%, our ratings say 40%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (60%, odds 1.50). Most likely score in line with that pick: EC São Bernardo 1–1 Marília. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
EC São Bernardo40%fair 2.49 · @2.80
Draw26%fair 3.87 · @3.00
Marília34%fair 2.94 · @2.30
2.40Expected goals
1.37EC São Bernardo xG
1.04Marília xG
48%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–012%
0–19%
0–09%
2–19%
2–08%
From our goals model: EC São Bernardo 1.4 – 1.0 Marília expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
EC São Bernardo to win
40%
2.49
2.80 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win
74%
1.35
1.30
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score
52%
1.91
–
Draw no bet
EC São Bernardo (draw no bet)
54%
1.84
–
Asian handicap
Marília +1 (Asian handicap)
73%
1.38
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
69%
1.45
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
60%
1.67
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
78%
1.28
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
90%
1.11
–
First team to score
EC São Bernardo to score first
52%
1.93
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT EC São Bernardo / FT EC São Bernardo
26%
3.86
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0
12%
8.08
–
Recent results
EC São Bernardo – last 6
LDWWLL
15 Mar
vs Portuguesa Santista
0–3
L
12 Mar
@ Bandeirante SP
2–2
D
8 Mar
@ Itapirense
3–0
W
4 Mar
vs Rio Branco SP
4–0
W
1 Mar
@ Rio Claro
0–1
L
25 Feb
vs Uniao Barbarense
0–1
L
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Marília – last 4
LWDD
15 Mar
@ XV de Jau
0–1
L
11 Mar
vs USAC
2–0
W
4 Mar
vs Rio Claro
1–1
D
25 Feb
@ Catanduva
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between EC São Bernardo and Marília.
What is the prediction for EC São Bernardo vs Marília?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 60% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win EC São Bernardo vs Marília?
On our numbers EC São Bernardo have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Marília 34%.
How many goals will there be in EC São Bernardo vs Marília?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for EC São Bernardo vs Marília?
Our predicted score is EC São Bernardo 1–1 Marília, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is EC São Bernardo vs Marília?
EC São Bernardo vs Marília (Paulista A3) kicks off on Saturday 28 March 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Paulista A3 · Brazil
Rio Claro
XV de Jau
Uniao Barbarense
Rio Preto
Paulista2
Portuguesa Santista1