Lexington 37%Draw 23%Louisville City 40%Expected goals 1.89 – 1.84
81%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.30 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.30Odds
O2.5
Value bet: Over 2.5 goals @ 2.00 – our chance 60% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultLouisville City to win ✓40% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · fair 1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.83
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓81% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 13.05
Lexington vs Louisville City: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Thursday 2 April the US Open Cup brings Lexington against Louisville City at Toyota Stadium. Kick-off: 00:00 WAT.
Current form
Lexington, last 5: LWWDL Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to San Antonio, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. 2.6 goals per outing makes them dangerous. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Louisville City, last 4: WWWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Brooklyn, away. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.3 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Louisville City, collecting 3.0 points per game to 1.4 for Lexington.
Head to head
When they last met (7 Mar 2026) it ended Lexington 1–2 Louisville City.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Lexington 1.9 xG, Louisville City 1.8 xG – a total near 3.7. That is an open game on paper: 60% for three or more goals, 57% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Lexington 37%, draw 23%, Louisville City 40%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.83.
Price worth noting: Over 2.5 goals @2.00 – the bookmaker implies 50%, our ratings say 60%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (81%, odds 1.30 – longer than our fair 1.24, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Lexington 1–1 Louisville City. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Lexington37%fair 2.73 · @3.00
Draw23%fair 4.28 · @3.50
Louisville City40%fair 2.50 · @2.00
3.73Expected goals
1.89Lexington xG
1.84Louisville City xG
57%Both score
60%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–18%
2–18%
1–28%
2–27%
3–15%
1–35%
From our goals model: Lexington 1.9 – 1.8 Louisville City expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Lexington vs Louisville City?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Lexington vs Louisville City?
On our numbers Lexington have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Louisville City 40%.
How many goals will there be in Lexington vs Louisville City?
We expect about 3.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lexington vs Louisville City?
Our predicted score is Lexington 1–1 Louisville City, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.7 goals in total.
When is Lexington vs Louisville City?
Lexington vs Louisville City (US Open Cup) kicks off on Thursday 2 April 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Toyota Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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