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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Corinthians v Barra: numbers & prediction

Copa Do Brasil · Brazil · Neo Química Arena

Corinthians

DLWWD
1–0
FT

Barra

WLWLD
Corinthians 63%Draw 22%Barra 16% Expected goals 1.41 – 0.72
77%
Betarazi pick

Under 3.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.30 · bookmaker 1.33 · Won ✓

8/10Rating
1.33Odds
U2.5

Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.90 – our chance 57% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓

Picks by market

ResultCorinthians to win ✓63% · @1.22
Double chanceCorinthians or draw ✓84% · @1.02
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓56% · @1.40
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓17% · fair 5.96

Corinthians vs Barra: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Corinthians welcome Barra to Neo Química Arena for a Copa Do Brasil fixture on Thursday 14 May (23:30 WAT).

Current form

Corinthians, last 5: DLWWD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Santa Fe, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.

Barra, last 5: WLWLD Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Figueirense, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.4 scored, 0.6 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.

Head to head

When they last met (22 Apr 2026) it ended Barra 0–1 Corinthians.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Corinthians 1.4 xG, Barra 0.7 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 57% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Corinthians 63%, draw 22%, Barra 16%.
  • GG/NG: NG (56%) at 1.40.
  • Price worth noting: Under 2.5 goals @1.90 – the bookmaker implies 53%, our ratings say 57%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (77%, odds 1.33 – longer than our fair 1.30, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Corinthians 1–0 Barra. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Corinthians63%fair 1.60 · @1.22
Draw22%fair 4.62 · @5.60
Barra16%fair 6.38 · @14.50
2.13Expected goals
1.41Corinthians xG
0.72Barra xG
44%Both score
43%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–017%
1–112%
0–012%
2–012%
0–19%
2–19%

From our goals model: Corinthians 1.4 – 0.7 Barra expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultCorinthians to win ✓63%1.601.22
Double chanceCorinthians or draw ✓84%1.191.02
Both teams to scoreNot both teams to score ✓56%1.801.40
Draw no betCorinthians (draw no bet) ✓80%1.25–
Asian handicapBarra +1 (Asian handicap)63%1.58–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✗68%1.471.28
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓57%1.761.90 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77%1.301.33
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓89%1.121.11
First team to scoreCorinthians to score first ✓58%1.71–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✓47%2.12–
Half-time / full-timeHT Corinthians / FT Corinthians ✗32%3.14–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓17%5.96–

Recent results

Corinthians – last 6

DLWWDW
7 May@ Santa Fe1–1D
4 May@ Mirassol1–2L
1 Mayvs Penarol2–0W
22 Apr@ Barra1–0W
19 Apr@ Vitoria0–0D
16 Aprvs Santa Fe2–0W
1.2Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5

Barra – last 5

WLWLD
5 May@ Figueirense3–0W
22 Aprvs Corinthians0–1L
12 Aprvs Maranhão3–0W
4 Apr@ Botafogo PB0–1L
15 Feb@ Camboriú1–1D
1.4Scored / game
0.6Conceded / game
20%Both scored
40%Over 2.5

Head to head

22 Apr 2026Barra v Corinthians0–1
Corinthians vs Barra head-to-head page →

More Copa Do Brasil predictions

League hub
FT Mirassol2 RB Bragantino1 137%2.32X28%3.10235%3.15 1.1–1.1xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 80%@1.20 ✓
FT Remo2 Bahia1 136%2.82X25%3.50239%2.32 1.5–1.6xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 78%@1.25 ✓
FT Jacuipense1 Palmeiras4 112%11.50X18%5.80270%1.23 0.6–2.0xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 76%@1.20 ✓
– Ceara2 Atletico-MG1 Pens 2–4 131%2.82X28%3.00241%2.60 1.0–1.3xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 79%@1.20 ✓
FT Chapecoense-sc2 Botafogo0 128%3.30X27%3.20245%2.20 0.9–1.1xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 81%@1.22 ✓
FT Confiança0 Gremio3 117%5.40X27%3.70256%1.62 0.7–1.4xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 81%@1.22 ✓
– Atletico Goianiense0 Atletico Paranaense0 Pens 1–3 139%3.20X27%3.10235%2.28 1.0–0.9xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 83%@1.20 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Corinthians vs Barra?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.

Who will win Corinthians vs Barra?

On our numbers Corinthians have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Barra 16%.

How many goals will there be in Corinthians vs Barra?

We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Corinthians vs Barra?

Our predicted score is Corinthians 1–0 Barra, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.

When is Corinthians vs Barra?

Corinthians vs Barra (Copa Do Brasil) kicks off on Thursday 14 May 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Neo Química Arena.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.