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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Confiança v Gremio: numbers & prediction

Copa Do Brasil · Brazil · Estádio Lourival Baptista

Confiança

LLDLW
0–3
FT

Gremio

LWDDW
Confiança 17%Draw 27%Gremio 56% Expected goals 0.73 – 1.38
81%
Betarazi pick

Under 3.5 goals

Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓

9/10Rating
1.22Odds
GG

Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.15 – our chance 51% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Picks by market

ResultGremio to win ✓56% · @1.62
Double chanceGremio or draw ✓83% · @1.14
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @2.15
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 11.88

Confiança vs Gremio: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Thursday 14 May the Copa Do Brasil brings Confiança against Gremio at Estádio Lourival Baptista. Kick-off: 23:00 WAT.

Current form

Confiança, last 5: LLDLW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Ituano, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.

Gremio, last 5: LWDDW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Flamengo, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.

Head to head

When they last met (21 Apr 2026) it ended Gremio 2–0 Confiança.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Confiança 0.7 xG, Gremio 1.4 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 61%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Confiança 17%, draw 27%, Gremio 56%.
  • Lower-risk option: Gremio or draw (83%) at 1.14.
  • GG/NG: GG (51%) at 2.15.
  • Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.15 – the bookmaker implies 47%, our ratings say 51%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (81%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Confiança 0–1 Gremio. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Confiança17%fair 5.72 · @5.40
Draw27%fair 3.72 · @3.70
Gremio56%fair 1.80 · @1.62
2.11Expected goals
0.73Confiança xG
1.38Gremio xG
51%Both score
39%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

0–117%
1–112%
0–012%
0–211%
1–09%
1–28%

From our goals model: Confiança 0.7 – 1.4 Gremio expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultGremio to win ✓56%1.801.62
Double chanceGremio or draw ✓83%1.211.14
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗51%1.972.15 ▲
Draw no betGremio (draw no bet) ✓76%1.31–
Asian handicapConfiança +1 (Asian handicap) ✗65%1.54–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓65%1.531.38
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗61%1.641.65
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81%1.241.22
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓91%1.101.06
First team to scoreGremio to score first ✓57%1.74–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗48%2.10–
Half-time / full-timeHT Gremio / FT Gremio ✓31%3.24–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8%11.88–

Recent results

Confiança – last 6

LLDLWW
10 May@ Ituano0–1L
7 Mayvs Fortaleza EC1–2L
30 Aprvs Vitoria2–2D
21 Apr@ Gremio0–2L
9 Apr@ AO Itabaiana1–0W
29 Marvs Fluminense PI2–0W
1.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Gremio – last 6

LWDDWL
10 Mayvs Flamengo0–1L
5 May@ Deportivo Riestra3–0W
3 May@ Atletico Paranaense0–0D
30 Apr@ Palestino0–0D
21 Aprvs Confiança2–0W
19 Apr@ Cruzeiro0–2L
0.8Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
0%Both scored
17%Over 2.5

Head to head

21 Apr 2026Gremio v Confiança2–0
Confiança vs Gremio head-to-head page →

More Copa Do Brasil predictions

League hub
FT Mirassol2 RB Bragantino1 137%2.32X28%3.10235%3.15 1.1–1.1xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 80%@1.20 ✓
FT Remo2 Bahia1 136%2.82X25%3.50239%2.32 1.5–1.6xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 78%@1.25 ✓
FT Jacuipense1 Palmeiras4 112%11.50X18%5.80270%1.23 0.6–2.0xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 76%@1.20 ✓
– Ceara2 Atletico-MG1 Pens 2–4 131%2.82X28%3.00241%2.60 1.0–1.3xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 79%@1.20 ✓
FT Chapecoense-sc2 Botafogo0 128%3.30X27%3.20245%2.20 0.9–1.1xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 81%@1.22 ✓
– Atletico Goianiense0 Atletico Paranaense0 Pens 1–3 139%3.20X27%3.10235%2.28 1.0–0.9xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 83%@1.20 ✓
FT Corinthians1 Barra0 163%1.22X22%5.60216%14.50 1.4–0.7xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 77%@1.33 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Confiança vs Gremio?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.

Who will win Confiança vs Gremio?

On our numbers Confiança have a 17% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Gremio 56%.

How many goals will there be in Confiança vs Gremio?

We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Confiança vs Gremio?

Our predicted score is Confiança 0–1 Gremio, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.

When is Confiança vs Gremio?

Confiança vs Gremio (Copa Do Brasil) kicks off on Thursday 14 May 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Lourival Baptista.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.