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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Ceara v Atletico-MG: numbers & prediction

Copa Do Brasil · Brazil · Estádio Governador Plácido Castelo

Ceara

LWLWW
2–1
–Pens 2–4

Atletico-MG

DWLWW
Ceara 31%Draw 28%Atletico-MG 41% Expected goals 1.02 – 1.28
79%
Betarazi pick

Under 3.5 goals

Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓

9/10Rating
1.20Odds
2

Value bet: Atletico-MG to win @ 2.60 – our chance 41% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk.

Picks by market

ResultAtletico-MG to win ✗41% · @2.60
Double chanceEither team to win ✓72% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 11.96

Ceara vs Atletico-MG: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Thursday 14 May the Copa Do Brasil brings Ceara against Atletico-MG at Estádio Governador Plácido Castelo. Kick-off: 01:30 WAT.

Current form

Ceara, last 5: LWLWW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Vitoria, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.

Atletico-MG, last 5: DWLWW Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Juventud, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.

Head to head

When they last met (23 Apr 2026) it ended Atletico-MG 2–1 Ceara.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Ceara 1.0 xG, Atletico-MG 1.3 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 41%, GG 52%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Ceara 31%, draw 28%, Atletico-MG 41%.
  • GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.95.
  • Price worth noting: Atletico-MG to win @2.60 – the bookmaker implies 38%, our ratings say 41%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (79%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Ceara 1–1 Atletico-MG. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Ceara31%fair 3.21 · @2.82
Draw28%fair 3.56 · @3.00
Atletico-MG41%fair 2.45 · @2.60
2.29Expected goals
1.02Ceara xG
1.28Atletico-MG xG
52%Both score
41%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–113%
0–113%
1–010%
0–010%
1–28%
0–28%

From our goals model: Ceara 1.0 – 1.3 Atletico-MG expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultAtletico-MG to win ✗41%2.452.60 ▲
Double chanceEither team to win ✓72%1.391.30
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓52%1.911.95
Draw no betAtletico-MG (draw no bet) ✗57%1.76–
Asian handicapCeara +1 (Asian handicap) ✓75%1.33–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓66%1.521.45
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗59%1.681.60
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79%1.261.20
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓90%1.111.06
First team to scoreAtletico-MG to score first ✗50%2.00–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗46%2.16–
Half-time / full-timeHT Atletico-MG / FT Atletico-MG ✗24%4.09–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8%11.96–

Recent results

Ceara – last 6

LWLWWW
7 May@ Vitoria0–1L
30 Apr@ Maranhão3–1W
23 Apr@ Atletico-MG1–2L
15 Aprvs Jacuipense4–1W
12 Aprvs Nautico Recife1–0W
9 Aprvs Fortaleza EC2–0W
1.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Atletico-MG – last 6

DWLWWL
5 May@ Juventud2–2D
3 May@ Cruzeiro3–1W
30 Apr@ Cienciano0–1L
23 Aprvs Ceara2–1W
16 Aprvs Juventud2–1W
12 Apr@ Santos0–1L
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Head to head

23 Apr 2026Atletico-MG v Ceara2–1
Ceara vs Atletico-MG head-to-head page →

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– Atletico Goianiense0 Atletico Paranaense0 Pens 1–3 139%3.20X27%3.10235%2.28 1.0–0.9xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 83%@1.20 ✓
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Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Ceara vs Atletico-MG?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.

Who will win Ceara vs Atletico-MG?

On our numbers Ceara have a 31% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Atletico-MG 41%.

How many goals will there be in Ceara vs Atletico-MG?

We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Ceara vs Atletico-MG?

Our predicted score is Ceara 1–1 Atletico-MG, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.

When is Ceara vs Atletico-MG?

Ceara vs Atletico-MG (Copa Do Brasil) kicks off on Thursday 14 May 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Governador Plácido Castelo.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.