Atletico-MG vs Ceara: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
23:00 WAT, Thursday 23 April: Atletico-MG v Ceara in the Copa Do Brasil, played at Arena MRV.
Current form
Atletico-MG, last 5: WLLWW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Juventud, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Ceara, last 5: WWWDD Their latest outing: 4–1 win over Jacuipense, at home. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Atletico-MG 1.5 xG, Ceara 0.7 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Atletico-MG 59%, draw 23%, Ceara 18%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.95.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (77%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Atletico-MG 1–0 Ceara. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Atletico-MG59%fair 1.69 · @1.54
Draw23%fair 4.30 · @3.90
Ceara18%fair 5.68 · @6.20
2.26Expected goals
1.54Atletico-MG xG
0.72Ceara xG
53%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–016%
2–012%
1–112%
0–010%
2–19%
0–18%
From our goals model: Atletico-MG 1.5 – 0.7 Ceara expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atletico-MG to win✓
59%
1.69
1.54
Double chance
Atletico-MG or draw✓
82%
1.21
1.11
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.87
1.95
Draw no bet
Atletico-MG (draw no bet)✓
77%
1.30
–
Asian handicap
Ceara +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
70%
1.43
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.78
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.30
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.13
1.10
First team to score
Atletico-MG to score first✓
61%
1.64
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.20
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atletico-MG / FT Atletico-MG✓
34%
2.90
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
9%
11.22
–
Recent results
Atletico-MG – last 6
WLLWWW
16 Apr
vs Juventud
2–1
W
12 Apr
@ Santos
0–1
L
9 Apr
@ Puerto Cabello
1–2
L
2 Apr
@ Chapecoense-sc
4–0
W
19 Mar
vs Sao Paulo
1–0
W
11 Mar
vs Internacional
1–0
W
1.5Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Ceara – last 6
WWWDDW
15 Apr
vs Jacuipense
4–1
W
12 Apr
vs Nautico Recife
1–0
W
9 Apr
vs Fortaleza EC
2–0
W
2 Apr
@ Ponte Preta
1–1
D
25 Mar
vs ABC
1–1
D
12 Mar
@ Maranhão
1–0
W
1.7Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atletico-MG and Ceara.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Atletico-MG vs Ceara?
On our numbers Atletico-MG have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Ceara 18%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico-MG vs Ceara?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico-MG vs Ceara?
Our predicted score is Atletico-MG 1–0 Ceara, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Atletico-MG vs Ceara?
Atletico-MG vs Ceara (Copa Do Brasil) kicks off on Thursday 23 April 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Arena MRV.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Fortaleza EC2
CRB1
Athletic Club1
Internacional2
Flamengo2
Vitoria1
RB Bragantino1
Mirassol1
Palmeiras3
Jacuipense0