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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

São Bernardo v Caxias: numbers & prediction

· · Estadio Primeiro de Maio

São Bernardo

DLLWL
1–1
FT

Caxias

WWLWW
São Bernardo 42%Draw 28%Caxias 31% Expected goals 1.24 – 0.98
65%
Betarazi pick

Over 1.5 goals

Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.45 · Won ✓

6/10Rating
1.45Odds

Picks by market

ResultSão Bernardo to win ✗42% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✗72% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.24

São Bernardo vs Caxias: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Caxias travel to face São Bernardo on Thursday 7 May in the , with Estadio Primeiro de Maio the venue – the ball rolls at 01:30 WAT.

Current form

São Bernardo, last 5: DLLWL Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Tombense, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.

Caxias, last 5: WWLWW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Volta Redonda, at home. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.7 conceded per game.

Momentum favours Caxias, collecting 2.0 points per game to 0.8 for São Bernardo.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give São Bernardo 1.2 xG, Caxias 1.0 xG – a total near 2.2. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 39%, GG 51%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – São Bernardo 42%, draw 28%, Caxias 31%.
  • GG/NG: GG (51%) at 1.95.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (65%, odds 1.45). Most likely score in line with that pick: São Bernardo 1–1 Caxias. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

São Bernardo42%fair 2.40 · @2.20
Draw28%fair 3.61 · @3.00
Caxias31%fair 3.26 · @3.20
2.22Expected goals
1.24São Bernardo xG
0.98Caxias xG
51%Both score
39%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–014%
1–113%
0–011%
0–111%
2–08%
2–18%

From our goals model: São Bernardo 1.2 – 1.0 Caxias expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultSão Bernardo to win ✗42%2.402.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✗72%1.381.30
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓51%1.951.95
Draw no betSão Bernardo (draw no bet)58%1.74–
Asian handicapCaxias +1 (Asian handicap) ✓76%1.32–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓65%1.551.45
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓61%1.631.53
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81%1.241.17
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓93%1.08–
First team to scoreSão Bernardo to score first50%2.01–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✓47%2.12–
Half-time / full-timeHT São Bernardo / FT São Bernardo ✗24%4.13–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8%12.24–

Recent results

São Bernardo – last 6

DLLWLD
30 Apr@ Tombense2–2D
15 Aprvs Cianorte0–1L
10 Apr@ Novorizontino0–1L
6 Apr@ Botafogo SP2–1W
2 Aprvs Operario-PR1–2L
30 Marvs Sampaio Corrêa RJ2–2D
1.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Caxias – last 6

WWLWWL
1 Mayvs Volta Redonda2–0W
28 Aprvs Ypiranga-RS2–1W
16 Apr@ Avai0–1L
8 Aprvs Juventude1–0W
29 Mar@ America Mineiro2–1W
26 Febvs Guarany de Bagé0–1L
1.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between São Bernardo and Caxias.

São Bernardo vs Caxias head-to-head page →

More predictions

FT Volta Redonda1 Novorizontino2 126%3.00X25%3.00249%2.30 0.9–1.6xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 68%@1.45 ✓
FT Operario-PR1 Chapecoense-sc2 146%2.20X26%2.95227%3.30 1.4–0.9xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 64%@1.53 ✓
FT Juventude2 Tombense1 156%1.91X26%3.10217%3.85 1.8–0.9xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 70%@1.44 ✓
FT Avai2 Sampaio Corrêa RJ0 152%1.48X27%3.75221%6.60 1.4–1.1xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 74%@1.30 ✓
FT America Mineiro3 Cianorte2 148%1.90X27%3.20225%3.90 1.5–1.2xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 74%@1.25 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for São Bernardo vs Caxias?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.

Who will win São Bernardo vs Caxias?

On our numbers São Bernardo have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Caxias 31%.

How many goals will there be in São Bernardo vs Caxias?

We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for São Bernardo vs Caxias?

Our predicted score is São Bernardo 1–1 Caxias, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.

When is São Bernardo vs Caxias?

São Bernardo vs Caxias () kicks off on Thursday 7 May 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Primeiro de Maio.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.