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Ethiopia v Sao Tome and Principe: numbers & prediction

Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification · Africa · Dire Dawa Stadium

Ethiopia

W
1–0
FT

Sao Tome and Principe

L
Ethiopia 68%Draw 18%Sao Tome and Principe 14% Expected goals 1.99 – 0.74
72%
Betarazi pick

Over 1.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.38 · bookmaker 1.36 · Lost ✗

7/10Rating
1.36Odds

Picks by market

ResultEthiopia to win ✓68% · @1.50
Double chanceEthiopia or draw ✓86% · @1.09
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗50% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.46

Ethiopia vs Sao Tome and Principe: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Tuesday 31 March the Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification brings Ethiopia against Sao Tome and Principe at Dire Dawa Stadium. Kick-off: 14:00 WAT.

Head to head

When they last met (27 Mar 2026) it ended Sao Tome and Principe 0–3 Ethiopia.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Ethiopia 2.0 xG, Sao Tome and Principe 0.7 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 50%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Ethiopia 68%, draw 18%, Sao Tome and Principe 14%.
  • GG/NG: GG (50%) at 2.10.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (72%, odds 1.36). Most likely score in line with that pick: Ethiopia 2–0 Sao Tome and Principe. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Ethiopia68%fair 1.48 · @1.50
Draw18%fair 5.46 · @4.10
Sao Tome and Principe14%fair 7.15 · @5.60
2.73Expected goals
1.99Ethiopia xG
0.74Sao Tome and Principe xG
50%Both score
48%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–013%
2–013%
1–110%
2–110%
3–09%
0–07%

From our goals model: Ethiopia 2.0 – 0.7 Sao Tome and Principe expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultEthiopia to win ✓68%1.481.50
Double chanceEthiopia or draw ✓86%1.161.09
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗50%1.992.10 ▲
Draw no betEthiopia (draw no bet) ✓83%1.21–
Asian handicapEthiopia -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓67%1.50–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✗72%1.381.36
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓52%1.931.70
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73%1.361.22
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓86%1.17–
First team to scoreEthiopia to score first ✓68%1.47–
Half-time resultEthiopia ahead at half-time ✓47%2.11–
Half-time / full-timeHT Ethiopia / FT Ethiopia ✓43%2.33–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10%10.46–

Recent results

Ethiopia – last 1

W
27 Mar@ Sao Tome and Principe3–0W
3.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
100%Over 2.5

Sao Tome and Principe – last 1

L
27 Marvs Ethiopia0–3L
0.0Scored / game
3.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
100%Over 2.5

Head to head

27 Mar 2026Sao Tome and Principe v Ethiopia0–3
Ethiopia vs Sao Tome and Principe head-to-head page →

Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Congo DR6402+412
2Tanzania6312+110
3Guinea6303+49
4Ethiopia6114-94

More Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification predictions

League hub
FT Burundi4 Chad0 160%1.71X22%3.60218%4.40 2.1–1.1xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 76%@1.35 ✓
FT Eswatini1 Eritrea2 130%2.08X51%3.40219%3.15 1.2–1.0xG 1XEswatini or draw 81%@1.33 ✗
FT Mauritius0 Somalia0 Pens 143%2.18X24%3.00233%3.35 1.2–1.0xG U2.5Under 2.5 goals 64%@1.45 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Ethiopia vs Sao Tome and Principe?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.

Who will win Ethiopia vs Sao Tome and Principe?

On our numbers Ethiopia have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Sao Tome and Principe 14%.

How many goals will there be in Ethiopia vs Sao Tome and Principe?

We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Ethiopia vs Sao Tome and Principe?

Our predicted score is Ethiopia 2–0 Sao Tome and Principe, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.

When is Ethiopia vs Sao Tome and Principe?

Ethiopia vs Sao Tome and Principe (Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification) kicks off on Tuesday 31 March 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Dire Dawa Stadium.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.