Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓52% · @1.50
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.34
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗18% · fair 5.52
Negelle Arsi vs Fasil Ketema: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Fasil Ketema travel to face Negelle Arsi on Thursday 30 April in the Premier League – the ball rolls at 13:00 WAT. In the table, Negelle Arsi are 1st, leading the league, on 11 points after 5 matches; Fasil Ketema are 15th (lower half) with 3.
Current form
Negelle Arsi, last 5: DDDWL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Hadiya Hosaena, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Fasil Ketema, last 5: WWDDD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Welayta Dicha, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Negelle Arsi 1.0 xG, Fasil Ketema 0.7 xG – a total near 1.7. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 75%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Negelle Arsi 40%, draw 32%, Fasil Ketema 28%.
Lower-risk option: Negelle Arsi or draw (72%) at 1.30.
GG/NG: NG (52%) at 1.50.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Negelle Arsi or draw (72%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Negelle Arsi 1–0 Fasil Ketema. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Negelle Arsi40%fair 2.49 · @2.50
Draw32%fair 3.16 · @2.45
Fasil Ketema28%fair 3.55 · @3.00
1.73Expected goals
1.02Negelle Arsi xG
0.71Fasil Ketema xG
48%Both score
25%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–018%
0–018%
1–113%
0–113%
2–09%
2–17%
From our goals model: Negelle Arsi 1.0 – 0.7 Fasil Ketema expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Negelle Arsi to win✗
40%
2.49
2.50
Double chance
Negelle Arsi or draw✓
72%
1.39
1.30
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
52%
1.94
1.50
Draw no bet
Negelle Arsi (draw no bet)
59%
1.70
–
Asian handicap
Fasil Ketema +1 (Asian handicap)✓
78%
1.29
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
52%
1.94
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
97%
1.03
–
First team to score
Negelle Arsi to score first✗
49%
2.06
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
53%
1.87
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✓
25%
3.97
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
18%
5.52
–
Recent results
Negelle Arsi – last 6
DDDWLD
19 Apr
vs Hadiya Hosaena
1–1
D
13 Apr
@ Sheger Ketema
1–1
D
9 Apr
vs Ethiopian Medhin
1–1
D
5 Apr
@ Adama Kenema
2–1
W
15 Mar
vs Mebrat Hayl
0–2
L
9 Mar
@ Bahardar
0–0
D
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Fasil Ketema – last 6
WWDDDL
14 Apr
@ Welayta Dicha
1–0
W
9 Apr
vs Awassa Kenema
1–0
W
3 Apr
@ Dire Dawa Kenema
0–0
D
13 Mar
vs Mekelakeya
0–0
D
9 Mar
@ Suhul Shire
1–1
D
4 Mar
@ Sidama Bunna
0–1
L
0.5Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Negelle Arsi and Fasil Ketema.
What is the prediction for Negelle Arsi vs Fasil Ketema?
Our pick is Negelle Arsi or draw with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Negelle Arsi vs Fasil Ketema?
On our numbers Negelle Arsi have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 32% and Fasil Ketema 28%.
How many goals will there be in Negelle Arsi vs Fasil Ketema?
We expect about 1.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 25% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Negelle Arsi vs Fasil Ketema?
Our predicted score is Negelle Arsi 1–0 Fasil Ketema, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.7 goals in total.
When is Negelle Arsi vs Fasil Ketema?
Negelle Arsi vs Fasil Ketema (Premier League) kicks off on Thursday 30 April 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Mekelle Kenema1
Arba Minch Kenema0